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枫下家园 / 住房话题 /
tor
星期五,不太忙,大家再聊一聊吧。我知道这是老话题了,而且没人能说得准,但是还是想听听各位的意见。今天早上,metro today上有一小条消息是royal bank对房产市场的分析。说toronto的房产市场正在cooling down。数据显示价格同比上升4.1%,成交同比下降6.1%,new listing继续增加。负担指数维持在38.4% with 1956.20 monthly cost by average。
我正在买房子,目标主要是新房子(楼花),是不是要hold on呢?大家给点建议吧。
-nomatter(how i tried);
2004-11-19
{302}
(#1988835@0)
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Everyone has his own opnion. One thing for sure, you should never truse newspaper.
-simmersnake(步履无声);
2004-11-19
(#1988922@0)
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但是官方评论绝大多数说房价还要涨,只有很少数评论登在像METRO这样的小报上才说出了真话。METRO报几年前在很多事情上的预测都非常准确地应验了,如租房市场、加元走势。。。几个月前,METRO有一篇分析CONDO行情的文章,本人非常佩服。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
(#1988993@0)
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。。大意是什么?
-zippo(O.M.G.);
2004-11-19
(#1989041@0)
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没买房吧,等到1块钱一幢的时候在买,
-sz648(土匪头子);
2004-11-19
(#1989046@0)
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赫赫,房价要是真到了一块钱一幢的时候,就更不会有人买了。肯定是出问题了,大家都要搬离这个城市。美国有个地方就是这样情况,二万块可以买一幢。好像出了什么问题,当地居民纷纷搬走。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
(#1989080@0)
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也想知道。大概说一下好吗?
-sheeta(sheeta);
2004-11-19
(#1989050@0)
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主要是说多伦多CONDO市场还会有房产商继续投入,是因为看好加元对美元上涨(METRO报登那篇文章的那天,加元还没到0。8)。详细内容,我以后有机会整理一下贴上来。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
{142}
(#1989110@0)
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Do your own research is better
-simmersnake(步履无声);
2004-11-19
(#1988924@0)
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I agree. but those data are true. from the data, what do you see?
-nomatter(how i tried);
2004-11-19
(#1988940@0)
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Of course, the price will evetually cool down. That is the cycle of this housing market. But what you need to know is, in social psychology, people will buy when price down? or when price up?
-simmersnake(步履无声);
2004-11-19
(#1988968@0)
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hehe, I think 90% people will buy when the price is up and 10% people will buy when the price is down.
-nomatter(how i tried);
2004-11-19
(#1989061@0)
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Now 新房子(楼花) is much expensive than 1-5 years new house.Original I want to buy 新房子(楼花) too, After I investigate the house market , I changed my minds and bought a 1-year old house inclusive all very good appliances and a lot of expensive upgrades, but the price is still much lower than the same 新房子(楼花) . Of couse it depends on which area you want to buy. I am talking about Oakville.
-nose(近似眼);
2004-11-19
{343}
(#1988959@0)
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Thanks for sharing.
-nomatter(how i tried);
2004-11-19
(#1989063@0)
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downtown的condo也有同样的情况,非常近的两栋楼,现房275k期房(两年)299k,而且后者还小100尺
-zxcvb(朝天椒);
2004-11-19
(#1989231@0)
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where where.
-tuantuan(暴风雪);
2004-11-19
(#1989254@0)
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The might because the material cost more now(e.g steels etc.) , so the same house cost more .The other point I want to make here is 1yr is still much differnent from new house. You can NOT pick your own floorplan, cann't pick the colour you like ,you have to take anything in the house as it is.
-javaelk(Caribou@25cent);
2004-11-20
{203}
(#1990339@0)
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I don't think so.
-nose(近似眼);
2004-11-21
{743}
(#1992348@0)
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你一举说中了现在房市的特点。
-joyzhou(快乐小JOY);
2004-11-22
{682}
(#1992451@0)
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房屋市场与其它任何经济市场一样,符合一个规律:非跌即涨、非涨即跌。没有一个市场能一直维系不涨不跌状态。房价上涨时刚开始也是缓慢的,花了好几年功夫,到最后才疯狂冲刺;以后下跌应该也是这样的过程,先是非常缓慢的,甚至不跌不涨,过好几年,最后加速。。。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
{144}
(#1989026@0)
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。。你这个教条主义者。。hiahia
-zippo(O.M.G.);
2004-11-19
(#1989035@0)
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不是教条,而是教训。举个例子,加元对美元涨到0。84,大家想到吗?如果回顾二十年历史,应该能想到,可大家只看近期不看历史。房屋市场如果能回顾二十年历史,你就不会说我教条了。没错,士家堡二十年前房子5万现在卖20万,但是,二十年前你会买士家堡的房子?注意,现在大家买房大多集中在北约克士家堡这些已被炒的热火朝天的地段。你还指望它永远热炒?就是纽约这种没有一寸空地的世界第一大城市以前房价也经历了一个很大的回调(我避免用暴跌一词,免得大家受刺激给我砖)才重新上涨冲新高。
二十年前5万是什么概念?二十年前5万投入债券或MUTUAL FOND,现在又值多少?
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
{319}
(#1989058@0)
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20年前投了5万到FUND;里去,现在应该比20万多吧,
-sz648(土匪头子);
2004-11-19
(#1989074@0)
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从投资角度来说,买房是最安全但收益最小的。从享受角度来说,买房也是不错的选择。这取决于两个因素:1。家里人多,租房不合算。(出租不是享受);2。准备长期居住一个城市(10年以上)。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
(#1989089@0)
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这样的话,如果从保值角度考虑,未来几年都不是介入的好时机了?看来觉得要跌的人大有人在啊。有没有人继续保持乐观的?
-nomatter(how i tried);
2004-11-19
(#1989082@0)
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本人,刚换了个大LOT的房子,
-sz648(土匪头子);
2004-11-19
(#1989086@0)
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换大房子是个不错的决定。从长期来看(20年以上),大房子比小房子要远远容易升值(保值)。我的观点,有钱应该买大房,没钱别去买小房。
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-19
(#1989096@0)
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不要那么绝对嘛
-simmersnake(步履无声);
2004-11-19
(#1989783@0)
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WrongSmall houses are easy to sell.
-nose(近似眼);
2004-11-22
{30}
(#1992967@0)
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realistic. for more and more small immigrant families are coming, small houses are acceptable to them.
-samsan(ilovecanada);
2004-11-22
(#1993074@0)
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Very wrong. Nothing related to size. Much more depended on other issues.
-chinasmile2000(itstimetomove);
2004-11-22
(#1993879@0)
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I just bought a house at North York. Return is better than saving in the bank, that is all I needed.
-deeply(deeply);
2004-11-19
(#1989144@0)
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if you just bought it, it is too early for you to talk about return
-guest963(guest);
2004-11-19
(#1989148@0)
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as long as the economic is growing, the price of house will be growing.
-deeply(deeply);
2004-11-19
(#1989165@0)
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Good luck. 你若不套现,有何必在乎涨跌?
-zxcvb(朝天椒);
2004-11-19
(#1989227@0)
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看着舒坦啊
-deeply(deeply);
2004-11-19
(#1990021@0)
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您的根据是从哪里来的?
-simmersnake(步履无声);
2004-11-19
(#1989786@0)
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既然这个帖子有被提上来了,就补充一点。加拿大的房屋市场与美元汇率不无关系。以前,香港台湾人等大多带着美金来加拿大买房(包括炒房的李加诚)。另外,准备移居加国的美国人和世界各国的人、在美国工作的加拿大人,很多都是拿美金来买房。例如,几年前我遇到过一家从太平洋岛国带着美金移居加国,立马买了房子。那个时候,加元对美金多么便宜,也就等于房价便宜。
现在,加元对美金超过0。84了,谁还会那么傻把美金换成加元买房?房屋市场的投资少了海外资金来源。(请注意:房屋投资的海外资金来源占的比例并不小。) 抛砖吧!
-deers(森林王);
2004-11-22
{452}
(#1993002@0)
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我原来也是象你这么想. 但是错了.如果加元对美元汇率持续现在这么高, 加拿大银行就会放慢加息的幅度, 甚至减息. 去年本来他们就很想加息了, 也加了一阵但又减了下来, 结果创造了比前年更低的利率.
从加拿大自身的角度, 加息压力已经很大. 但现在汇率如此, 对加拿大的出口(因为对美国出口最大)影响很大. 很多公司都要扭赢为亏了. 所以从一定程度上减缓了加息的幅度.
我们都知道, 这次房市受低利率的刺激大大超过海外资金.
所以, 加元再这么高的话, 房市可能还能挺一段.
-joyzhou(快乐小JOY);
2004-11-22
{415}
(#1993068@0)
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加息看来还要继续, "The economy is operating relatively close to capacity and hence, at least over time, that means we are going to need to withdraw monetary stimulus," Mr. Dodge said.能买的都买了, 不该买的也买了. 关键是过去的低利率使很多未来的消费者提前完成了消费. 那未来还有谁会来消费呢? 新移民?
考虑现在的汇率, TORONTO的房价已是很高了. 现在的市场可能是买卖双方的心理战. 看那一方可以坚持到最后. 随着利率的升高, 卖方的耐心会一点一点的被挤掉. 从现在看, 利率的走向已很明显, 只不过是快慢而已. Let's wait and see.
-ican(apple);
2004-11-22
{330}
(#1993767@0)
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en, good analysis.
-samsan(ilovecanada);
2004-11-22
(#1993081@0)
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有几个因素不能忽略,一个是加拿大经济这几年还是很好的,连续
几年的财政盈余就说明这个事实;另外象多伦多这样的移民城市,这
几年总的移民数是稳定的。关键的一点是看房价是不是还在家庭收入的合理比例内,从这个
角度看,多伦多很多地区的房子即使不会大涨,降也是很难的。
-canadacanada(我来学习学习);
2004-11-19
{114}
(#1989111@0)
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房价是不是还在家庭收入的合理比例内?
-joyzhou(快乐小JOY);
2004-11-20
{1197}
(#1990511@0)
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特请具体批驳一下7、8和10,谢谢
-pasu(InTheSky);
2004-11-23
(#1994633@0)
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Housing crash fear drives down prices in UK. Wondering what is going to happen here.Here is the link.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/story.jsp?story=583304
I agree with Deers. Nothing is going up forever. We all know housing market has its cycle of ups and downs. My opinion is if you do not have 25% down payment, you better hold back. Otherwise, if housing market crashes, you might have problem to renew your mortgage. Anyway, it is not a good time to buy.
-starwars988(stars);
2004-11-19
{402}
(#1989279@0)
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Housing price drives low in UK. Wondering what is going to happen here. One thing for sure is housing market can not go up forever. Not a good time to buy.
-starwars988(stars);
2004-11-19
(#1989615@0)
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Only idiots to buy houses right now.
-hoop(green);
2004-11-22
(#1993524@0)
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有种说说道理嘛,口吐白末的谩骂是没意是的。
-apple_tree(苹果树);
2004-11-22
(#1993747@0)
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you might see a housing market crash fairely soon, especially in California area in US and Toronto, Vancouver area In CA...Be cautious and take care.
-diver4years(diver);
2004-11-23
{1080}
(#1994935@0)