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Crisis Pushes Confidence to Record Low

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛OCTOBER 28, 2008, 12:09 P.M. ET

By RIVA FROYMOVICH

NEW YORK -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October, after a slight rise a month earlier, and expectations are even bleaker, a report released Tuesday said.

The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for October dropped to 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 61.4 in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a reading of 51.5.

The 23.4 point drop in the index was the third largest monthly drop in the series' history, the board said.

The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months declined to 35.5 in October from 61.5 in September.

"The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers' confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic, and this news doesn't bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season."

The sharp confidence fall is causing economists to cut their estimate for consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics estimated that if the expectation index remains at 35.5, real consumer spending would fall at an annual rate of about 3.5% this quarter, worse than the 3% drop he expects in the third quarter.

But what may help the outlook, he said, is the decline in gasoline prices and the belief that stock prices won't continue to fall as badly as they have already.

Even so, the damage to household finances has already been done.

"A consumer-led recession is upon us, and it promises to be a serious one," said Joshua Shapiro of MFR.

The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 41.9 from 61.1 in the prior month.

Consumers took a very dismal view of the current job market. The percentage who think jobs are hard to get rose to 37.2% in October from 32.2% in September. At the start of 2008, only 20.6% thought jobs were hard to get.

The report was released as the Federal Reserve started a two-day meeting to set monetary policy. The sharp fall in confidence bolsters the view that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 1%.
—Kathleen Madigan contributed to this article.

Write to Riva Froymovich at riva.froymovich@dowjones.com更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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  • ZT: Market Snapshot -- S&P
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Tuesday October 28, 2008 (12:54 PM EDT)
    Stocks Trade Higher

    Major indexes remained in the green Tuesday despite a record-low consumer confidence reading for October. The Fed kicked off its two-day meeting

    Major U.S. stock indexes were higher Tuesday afternoon but below the best levels of the session as market tried to rebound from five-year low levels. Traders were digesting some grim news on the U.S. economy: October consumer confidence plunged to a record 38.0 low from 61.1 in September, and home prices continued their slide in August.

    Tuesday's action follows a sell-off that took the Dow industrials to a five-year low on Monday, according to S&P MarketScope.

    Bonds were lower as the Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday. The dollar index was slightly higher. Gold futures were off. Oil futures were mixed.

    At 12:10 p.m. ET Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average was higher by 112.78 points at 8,288.55. The broader S&P 500 index added 7.18 points to 856.10. And the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index gained 7.01 points to 1,512.91.

    But while the major indexes were in the green, action in the broader market was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, 15 stocks were lower in price for every 13 that gained. The ratio on the Nasdaq was 15-10 negative.

    Trading volume on the NYSE was slow, suggesting investors are still not ready to jump in to stocks, according to S&P MarketScope.

    Most European and stock markets were also higher. In Asia, late-session rallies drove Hong Kong shares 14.4% higher and Tokyo up 6.4%.

    On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve kicked off a two-day policy meeting against a background of a banking crisis contributing to a budding global recession. Most observers see the Fed cutting rates Wednesday, although some argue the central bank will forgo such a move in favor of cutting reserve requirements for member banks.

    The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city U.S. home price index for August, released Tuesday, posted a 1% decline from the previous month and a record 16.6% decline over the prior-year period. The cities suffering the largest price declines were San Francisco (-3.48%), Phoenix (-2.86%), and Las Vegas (-2.35%). Only two of the 20 cities measured posted gains in August -- Cleveland (1.07%) and Boston (0.1%).

    U.S. consumer confidence plunged to a new all-time low of 38.0 in October from 61.4 (was 59.8), leaving the index way below its prior cyclical low in July of 51.0.

    "The surge in market turmoil, the Treasury bailout plan and the stock price free-fall clearly stole the limelight from falling gasoline prices, and have left a public panic of historic magnitude that is likely to prompt a sizable pull-back in spending," says Action Economics.

    "Consumers are feeling the brunt of this recession," wrote Barclay's Capital economist Michelle Meyer in a note Tuesday. "Household wealth has evaporated owing to lower home prices and a sharp sell-off in the stock market. In addition, consumers are struggling to finance their purchases because of ever-tightening lending standards." Consumers are also growing increasingly concerned about the labor market, notes Meyer.

    Reuters reports General Motors (GM) and Cerberus Capital Management have asked the U.S. government for around $10 billion in an unprecedented rescue package to support a merger between GM and Chrysler, two sources with direct knowledge of the talks said. The government funding would include roughly $3 billion in exchange for preferred stock in a merged automaker, according to one of the sources, who was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly. The U.S. Treasury Department is considering a request for direct aid to facilitate the merger and a decision could come this week, sources familiar with the still-developing government response said.

    Boeing (BA) stock was indicated to open slightly higher after the company and and its biggest union have agreed a tentative deal to end the longest strike at the planemaker's plants for 13 years and halt revenue losses estimated at $100 million a day. Reuters reported that at the fourth attempt, and with the help of a federal mediator, the union representing 27,000 assembly workers said late on Monday it had struck a four-year deal with Boeing that provided job security for its members and limited outsourcing. Boeing, whose plants have been closed for 52 days, confirmed the tentative agreement, saying it had retained the flexibility it needed to run its business.

    In other U.S. markets Tuesday, the 10-year Treasury note was lower in price at 101-23/32 for a yield of 3.794%, while the 30-year bond was lower at 106-14/32 for yield of 4.125%. The Treasury Dept. is scheduled to auction $10 billion in two-year notes Tuesday, followed by a $24 billion five-year auction on Thursday, the biggest since 2003.

    The U.S. dollar index was higher at 87.47.

    December West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures, which skidded to a 17-month low Monday, were higher at $63.52 per barrel.

    December gold futures gave up earlier gains to trade lower at $736.10.

    Among Tuesday's stocks in the news, Whirlpool Corp, (WHR) posted third-quarter EPS from continuing operations of $2.15, vs. $2.20 one year earlier, despite a 1% revenue rise. Due to current economic conditions, Whirlpool now expects EPS from continuing operations of $5.75-$6.00 vs. its previous estimate of $7.00-$7.50, and expects to generate free cash flow of $0-$50 million vs. its prior estimate of $500 million-$550 million. The company suspended its its share repurchase program. It has also announced substantial cost and production capacity reductions, and will reduce its global workforce by approximately 5,000 positions by the end of 2009.

    Valero Energy (VLO) posted third-quarter EPS from continuing operations of $1.86, vs. $1.34 one year earlier, on 52% higher operating revenue. Results for the current quarter exclude a pre-tax gain of $305 million on the sale of its Krotz Springs, Louisiana refinery. Valero said that given the uncertain economic environment, it will significantly reduce its capital spending.

    Crane Co. (CR) posted third-quarter EPS of 60 cents, vs. 87 cents (adjusted) on a 3% sales decline. The company noted an unexpected sharp slowdown in orders beginning in August in several of its short-cycle businesses, further weakening in Engineered Materials end markets, and the continued high level of engineering spending in Aerospace. Crane cut its 2008 EPS guidance from $3.45-$3.60 to $2.75-$2.90.

    BP (BP) posted third quarter earnings per American Depositary Share of $3.21, vs. $1.28 on year earlier, on a 45% revenue rise.

    CNOOC (CEO) said its third-quarter total revenue (unaudited) amounted to 30.9 billion yuan (equivalent to $4.5 billion), up 69% year-over-year. The company said it achieved a total net daily production of 549,589 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), up 15.2% year-over-year.

    Huntsman Corp. (HUN) says Hexion Specialty Chemicals informed it that Hexion had received correspondence from counsel to Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank that the banks do not believe that the solvency opinion and certificate proposed to be provided meet the condition of the commitment letter, effectively saying that the banks do not plan to fund the proposed closing of the merger scheduled for this morning. Accordingly, Huntsman does not expect the merger to close today.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • Crisis Pushes Confidence to Record Low
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛OCTOBER 28, 2008, 12:09 P.M. ET

      By RIVA FROYMOVICH

      NEW YORK -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to an all-time low in October, after a slight rise a month earlier, and expectations are even bleaker, a report released Tuesday said.

      The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of consumer confidence for October dropped to 38.0, compared with a revised reading of 61.4 in September. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected a reading of 51.5.

      The 23.4 point drop in the index was the third largest monthly drop in the series' history, the board said.

      The consumer expectations index for the state of economic activity over the next six months declined to 35.5 in October from 61.5 in September.

      "The impact of the financial crisis over the last several weeks has clearly taken a toll on consumers' confidence," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center. "Their earnings outlook, as well as inflation outlook, is also more pessimistic, and this news doesn't bode well for retailers who are already bracing for what is shaping up to be a very challenging holiday season."

      The sharp confidence fall is causing economists to cut their estimate for consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

      Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics estimated that if the expectation index remains at 35.5, real consumer spending would fall at an annual rate of about 3.5% this quarter, worse than the 3% drop he expects in the third quarter.

      But what may help the outlook, he said, is the decline in gasoline prices and the belief that stock prices won't continue to fall as badly as they have already.

      Even so, the damage to household finances has already been done.

      "A consumer-led recession is upon us, and it promises to be a serious one," said Joshua Shapiro of MFR.

      The present situation index, a gauge of consumers' assessment of current economic conditions, fell to 41.9 from 61.1 in the prior month.

      Consumers took a very dismal view of the current job market. The percentage who think jobs are hard to get rose to 37.2% in October from 32.2% in September. At the start of 2008, only 20.6% thought jobs were hard to get.

      The report was released as the Federal Reserve started a two-day meeting to set monetary policy. The sharp fall in confidence bolsters the view that the Fed will cut the fed funds rate by 50 basis points, to 1%.
      —Kathleen Madigan contributed to this article.

      Write to Riva Froymovich at riva.froymovich@dowjones.com更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • Stocks Reclaim Some Early Gains
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛* OCTOBER 28, 2008, 1:09 P.M. ET

      Stocks regained some momentum Tuesday after earlier being tripped up by a rock-bottom reading of U.S. consumer confidence.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was up 331 points at its morning high, recently traded 200 points higher, up 2.4%, at 8375.53.


      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange October 28, 2008. U.S. stocks rose at the open on Tuesday as investors snapped up beaten-down shares and bet that credit markets would see a further thaw, overshadowing worries about the global recession.

      Rallies in overseas shares and favorable news at two blue-chip companies boosted market participants' mood early in the session. Some of that enthusiasm has lingered, although many players remain on the sidelines, trying to discern how deep and how long the global economy's slowdown will run.

      "The market is moving around right now, but there's absolutely no liquidity," said Michael Davis, an independent trader active in Treasury and stock-index futures at the Chicago Board of Trade. "The investment banks aren't playing right now," due to their recent struggles to survive.

      Shares of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group were down 11% and 6%, respectively.

      At the same time, the stock market has often been plagued by forced selling among hedge-funds and other deep-pocket players, who have to raise cash to cover margin calls as the market goes down. While such activity has often produced avalanches of selling lately, some veteran investors are still looking for a one-time market plunge, accompanied by big volume, to confirm that the forced selling has truly run its course, paving the way for a more sustained rally.

      "There are still people hanging on by their fingernails who need to be moved into the sell column," said Michael Farr, president of the Washington money-management firm Farr, Miller & Washington. "I'm a buyer in waiting. I know what I want to buy, but I haven't seen the wash-out that I want to see first."

      An overnight surge in Asian and European stocks set an upbeat tone prior to the opening bell in New York. Rebounding from a round of painful losses in the previous session, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index leapt 14.4% and Tokyo's Nikkei 225 Index climbed 6.4%.

      Big gains in Dow components General Motors and Boeing have also spurred the blue-chip average higher on Tuesday.

      GM was the strongest gainer among Dow components, up 9% on reports that the government may approve loans that could clear the way for the troubled auto maker to merge with ailing rival Chrysler. Boeing rose 4% after reaching a tentative labor agreement with its largest union that could end a costly strike.

      The S&P 500 was recently up 2%, trading at 866.14, led by a 5.4% rise in its basic materials sector. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.4% to 1526.56.

      Weak economic data have put a damper on stocks as the session has played out. The Conference Board said its consumer-confidence index fell to a reading of 38 in October, a record low that was also far worse than the average forecast of economists for a reading of 51.5.

      Traders are also keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve, whose interest-rate committee began a two-day meeting in Washington on Tuesday. Most market participants expect a half-point cut in the Fed's key rate target, which now stands at 1.5%. The U.S. central bank rarely makes announcements on the first day of a two-day meeting, but after this month's global coordinated rate cut, traders are on alert for an early move.

      The Fed's counterparts around the world are also weighing further moves to prop up their respective economies. European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday that another Europe rate cut was "possible," and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King recently admitted for the first time that the United Kingdom was likely in recession. Troubled Iceland on Tuesday raised its interest rates by six percentage points to 18%.

      Currency moves by Australia, as well as reports that Singapore and Malaysia also intervened to help their currencies, also cheered investors. Japan moved up its restrictions on so-called naked short-selling by a week.

      The dollar rallied against the euro, yen, and British pound. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six foreign denominations, was recently up 0.4%.

      Oil futures were flat at $63.20 a barrel in New York. Gold contracts slipped $5.90 to $737 per ounce. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up 0.6%.

      Treasury prices fell. The two-year note was off 3/32, yielding 1.581%. The benchmark 10-year note slipped 29/32 to yield 3.795%.

      Write to Peter A. McKay at peter.mckay@wsj.com.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net