recommendations, just my 2 cents (do it on your own risk, a little late than the market) -samqyang(Kingkong) @安省华人论坛:安省枫下论坛 The Rolia Forum of Ontario

warning; be careful guys, I have a very bad feeling; market will go down sharply from now (2008 July 31) on, and we will see below 2000 point before end of this year ; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-30 {19} (#43184@19)
Please be prepared;

如果ZF只是嘴上说人话不做人事，会的。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-30 (#43186@19)
2008 is for sure not a good year for investment; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-30 {507} (#43194@19)
1) 基本面 decide the stock market; now it's bad; subprime cause almost all major banks to shrink or control the loan; that means the money is flow out of stock market;
2) 八月市场接受2400亿解禁股大考 ; if you only have enough water for a cup, what if I give you a empty swimming pool; the level of water will go down;
3) inflation this high in china, interest hike will make the bleeding of stock market even worse; but sometime control the inflation is still important than the stock market;

though I don't like 熊市, but the above fact leave me no choice but to stay away from stock market this and next year; until the 基本面 changed; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-30 {77} (#43196@19)
keep your cash flow, you will see gold all over the ground in next few years;

要发新大盘股，抽调资金呢。 -rococoq(rococo); 2008-7-30 (#43199@19)
second warning, run, as fast as you can (2008 Aug 01) -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43212@19)

as per my calculation, you may see around 2000 points at end of Auguest if ZF still do nothing; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43215@19)

now is 10:09AM Aug 01, you may see at least 150 points down by end of today; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43216@19)

你放心吧，不会的。现在是机构和政府在博弈。今天大盘将收阳线，不要忘了行情始于最悲观的时候。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-31 (#43221@19)

今天比较关键，多空争夺比较激烈，如果破位将很难看，季线显示应该到2238附近去了 -rwwr(人无完人); 2008-7-31 (#43224@19)

中国股市中基金从来没干过好事，每次都是他们高买低卖。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-31 (#43228@19)

I never think 机构和政府在博弈, they are always together; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43243@19)

机构和政府在博弈是这几天连续大跌，让政府出利好，而不是嘴上说说。你没发现规律吗，只要政府官员口头说要保持股市稳定，股市就肯定连续跌。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-31 (#43246@19)

lets wait and see it; hope it is 今天大盘将收阳线 by end of today; Have a nice sleep; and I didn't think the market is at "最悲观的时候", it is just not there yet, -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43251@19)

大盘收不收阳线其实我不关心，我只关注我的股票。中国的股市最能体现中国特色 --- 这是我对中国股市的理解。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-31 (#43258@19)

ZF should do something earlier, now is too late; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-7-31 (#43247@19)

ZF从来就没把股民当回事。 -chunguimeng(春闺梦); 2008-7-31 (#43252@19)

感觉更象中央监管当局和地方诸侯抢夺金融话语权的争斗.和64的大学生逼宫很象,不同的是争斗的双方实力相当,但如果最后政府动真格的.奥运后肯定有金融地震 -kingsw(Steven); 2008-8-1 (#43261@19)

真的收阳了，昨天晚上一开始觉得大盘走得不好看，周末有消息? -haah(木头1212123); 2008-8-1 (#43262@19)

说话太没谱：）。。。 -newnewer(nn); 2008-8-1 (#43265@19)

Shall we see 2000 points at the end of Auguest if ZF do nothing; it's too late now; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-18 (#43442@19)

奥运行情already over, dont' put much expectation on it; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-3 {1009} (#43271@19)
Just my 2 cnets, may wrong;

point 1) no money, the whole world knew US goes toward (or I say already in ) recession; it won’t recover soon; if economic engine is down, no stock market will go up in the same time;
point 2) the first Priority of ZF now is to reduce the inflation but not save the stock market; unless they do something really concrete to help relief the stock market; otherwise, don’t waste your cash now;
point 3) psychologically the majority of people is not in BULL market mode, market wont’ go creasy like last 3 years, it needs at least another 2 or 3 years to back on it next strong cycle; but not now for sure or within next 6 months for sure;
point 4) the system and the extension of the PRC stock market is at a history turning point, wait and surf on next high tide is not a bad idea; within next 2 years, you will see a lot of stocks price less than 3 yuan;

if you are a pro on short term gamble, then go for it; otherwise, don’t expect too much on it now;

顶一下. 到昨天为止, 市场向你预测的方向前进. 不过觉得你说的过于悲观了. -york_region(york_region); 2008-8-5 (#43302@19)

haha, now is short term buying point; if you are a pro and a gambler; (ShanHai Time , 2008 Aug 06 9:47AM; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-5 {32} (#43303@19)
though long term still very bad;

601898 11.99 , 600188 16.59, 600088 19.30 etc. -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-5 (#43304@19)
but I won't do anything, just too risk now; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-5 (#43305@19)
"今天大盘将收阳线，不要忘了行情始于最悲观的时候", this might be valid for today (aug 6) -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-5 {78} (#43307@19)
a successful olympic game should match with a red stock market; be positive;
short term Zhen4Cang1 (shake off) done; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-5 (#43309@19)

new stock 中国南车 at this weak market; sigh; crash; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-6 (#43313@19)

Ding; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-10 (#43332@19)

Ding! -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-11 (#43364@19)

顶。又前进了一大步。破位了。真会到2000？ -york_region(york_region); 2008-8-11 (#43365@19)

2500破了，开始买套 -firefly888(意如流水任东西); 2008-8-11 (#43366@19)

没关系，我记得好像是谁说过“这是安全套”不用怕的。长期会赚钱的。 -big-fat-pig(无股丰登); 2008-8-11 {22} (#43367@19)
唉！谁知道是什么时候。

hahaha, 放心，现在买可比5000时买对的可能性大了好多。 -firefly888(意如流水任东西); 2008-8-12 (#43387@19)

Ding; I am crying for any investers that put there money in this kind of market; <as per my calculation, you may see around 2000 points at end of Auguest if ZF still do nothing> ; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-11 (#43382@19)

why are you crying for others ? lots of us are still making good money there. -firefly888(意如流水任东西); 2008-8-12 (#43388@19)

ok; not for you; for the people who still locked in the market; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-12 (#43411@19)

ding! another 5% down on SH index; 20080818 -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-18 (#43440@19)
be strong, Fan3Tan2 should happening in any minutes start from now on (but don't expect too much in bear market); -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-18 {209} (#43443@19)
buy somthing dropped less may be a good idea in short term if you are a brave gambler;

dropped less means somebody (usually the big money holder) disagree with the market;
电力 section can be considered;

华电能源才两块多了，能买吗？ -rococoq(rococo); 2008-8-18 (#43445@19)

thanks for providing this info; I will start buying it slowly; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-18 {926} (#43448@19)
If i can keep it for a few years, I am sure will see a big result;

Oil price down globally ==> coal price will down ==> profit potential will getting better for those hard hit section by high fuel price ==> their stock will going up steadily

Worth to buy and hold;
Anyway, don't touch fuel energy section (like coal, oil etc) now if oil price going down steadly globally;
due to their profitbility can't be higher than before (and stock price usally already match with their creasy price), then long term wise, they will go down sharply if profit can't maintain;

Stock price decided by the potential profitability of it's industry sector;
That’s why if you take a look of the US airline stocks almost tripled after 14 July, 2008 due to almost 30 $ of oil price drop in a month, that means the worst winter for airlines may already past;

Just my 2 cents, willing to share though may wrong;
don't need to rush so far, market is just too weak now; wait and hold cash is the best strategy now; within next 2 years you will see plenty of stocks fell well below 3 yuan; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-18 {447} (#43450@19)
By that time, you can pick up any gold you want and wait for next wave to start; just be patient; don't rush; I still don't think we already see the bottom of the vally so far;

Due to the Hong2Guan1 ecnomics cycle for China won't be strong in next few years, the stock market will follow and reflect it (I mean stock market should be very weak and cool in at least next 1 to 2 years, don't exepct too much) ;

Let wait and see it;
recommendations, just my 2 cents (do it on your own risk, a little late than the market) -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-8-19 {1704} (#43453@19)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛date: 20080819

current price:
(000534) 汕电力A 3.90 (yuan)
(600021) 上海电力 3.80 (yuan)
(600795) 国电电力 5.89 (yuan)
(000767)漳泽电力 3.97 (yuan)
(000899)赣能股份 3.65 (yuan)
(600027)“华电国际” 4.33 (yuan)
(600292)“九龙电力” 4.07 (yuan)
(600116)三峡水利 4.88 (yuan)

if you don't know or don't want to buy just any one stock (means all eggs should never put into one basket), you can buy them like buying index;

e.g. if you have 100K cash, you can buy any 5 of them use 10K * 5 now ; that means 50K on 5 different stocks (you can buy other 电力 section stock as your own preference);

keep another 50K as backup cash,
1) if market going up then do nothing (always keep this in mind, think about next valuble section is better than Zhui1Zhang3)
2) if market going down and keep dropping which may happen in next 6 months, then buy another 50 K if their average price down another 40% to 50% percent

then hold them, regardless what happened, wait and hold them for at least next 1 or 2 years, sell any of them if at any time it reaches the 2.5 times of your buying price, (don't be too greed, i knew it's hard, but unless you follow the stable rule, otherwise, you will end up keep changing it and achieves nothing; )
then you will be the best invester I had ever saw;

I personally prefer the steady strategic investment ; if somebody say they can achieve the same faster, please help share the idea , becaure I can't ; this is just my own current opinion as per today 19 Aug, 2008 ;

be noted that please operate it on your own risk;

keep a note on what I said above and let wait and see;更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

so far still feel very bad; just no money there; volume is too low to make anything happen; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-9-4 (#43546@19)
sigh, I didn't expect 2000 point this soon can be reached; if this is the case, 1500 point at Dec, 2008 -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-9-11 (#43564@19)

Chinese stocks are worthless. It's a tool used by the badly managed companies and government to suck money out of ordinary people without giving them anything back. -omega4(omega); 2008-9-11 (#43565@19)
Even 1000 points is too high. Don't forget the Nortel story, 140 to 10 within weeks and never rise again. -omega4(omega); 2008-9-11 (#43566@19)

2000点破了才好 -firefly888(意如流水任东西); 2008-9-11 (#43567@19)

so are we at the bottom yet? or you think we should hold on to our money and wait and see? -88honey(生活的滋味); 2008-9-17 (#43584@19)
I hope we will not see below 1500 points before new year; -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-10-29 (#43791@19)

middle term fan3tan2 already start; will last at least a few weeks; will go back over 2500 at least -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-9-18 (#43606@19)
sigh, still didn't feel the bottom already reached; far away; hibernating -samqyang(Kingkong); 2008-10-29 (#43792@19)

@Ontario

recommendations, just my 2 cents (do it on your own risk, a little late than the market)

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