本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Actuaries outside insuranceThere is an increasing trend to recognize that actuarial skills can be applied to a range of applications outside the insurance industry. One notable example is the use in some US states of actuarial models to set criminal sentencing guidelines. These models attempt to predict the chance of re-offending according to rating factors which include the type of crime, age, educational background and ethnicity of the offender (Silver & Chow-Martin 2002). However, these models have been open to criticism as providing justification by law enforcement personnel on specific ethnic groups. Whether or not this is statistically correct or a self-fulfilling correlation remains under debate (Harcourt 2003).
Another example is the use of actuarial models to assess the risk of sex offense recidivism. Actuarial models and associated tables, such as the MnSOST-R, Static-99, and SORAG, have been used since the late 1990s to determine the likelihood that a sex offender will recidivate and thus whether he or she should be institutionalized or set free (Nieto & Jung 2006, pp. 28–33).更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net