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密西兄弟, 恕我冒昧, 我觉的你没读懂文章的要点, 文章的关键点是斯密斯选举失败的原因是其竞选政见左右摇摆不定,误断选民心思, 尤其是在Davis Miller 取舍上,让Ford 占了上风, 等反应过来,已经难已回身

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Here are some key points:

" From the start, Mr. Smitherman’s team suffered from being a “big tent” affair with myriad advisers from across the political spectrum. His strategists knew the election was fast becoming a referendum on Mayor David Miller’s approach to governing, set against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and irritation over tax hikes and political perks. Polling data showed the city was deeply split over Mr. Miller’s record. But Mr. Smitherman and his brain trust couldn’t decide which side of the urban divide they wanted to win over. When they finally placed their bets, it was too late.

In many ways, Mr. Smitherman put himself at a disadvantage from the outset, says Ryerson University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki: He played a quiet, cagey campaign early on, let his opponents set the agenda and failed to adequately set himself apart afterwards.

“He needed to more pointedly and directly try to puncture the assumption that the city was totally broken down and in need of a major overhaul. Because once he conceded that, he could not win ... He could not sell himself as the better fixer.”
............................

" From the start, Mr. Smitherman’s basically centrist instincts posed a challenge for his campaign. Some advisers, citing an early internal poll showing surprisingly strong support for Mr. Miller and the progressive approach, argued for a left-leaning campaign. Others wanted Mr. Smitherman to lean right, promising, for example, to privatize garbage collection................"

................
" When Mr. Smitherman launched his campaign in early September, his “recalibrated” image (a waste fighter who’d freeze taxes for a year and personally lead a search-and-destroy mission for fiscal flab) reflected Mr. Marzolini’s assessment of the problem: Mr. Ford’s rap sheet didn’t matter because the groundswell behind him was “like a 1960s protest,” he said.

“To take on Rob Ford, you have to take him on in his environment.”

He urged Mr. Smitherman to revisit the pugilistic persona he’d cultivated when the Liberals were in opposition. “When you’re going up against Ford,” Mr. Marzolini said, “you have to be yourself.”

Mr. Marzolini admits he never set foot in Mr. Smitherman’s campaign office, and his advice bothered some strategists who felt the candidate was abandoning his natural centre-left constituency in a bid to out-Ford Mr. Ford.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

On the hustings, Mr. Smitherman increasingly set aside Mr. Marzolini’s recommendations and talked up his “progressive” values and positive vision, messages reinforced by a parade of high profile endorsements, mainly drawn from Toronto’s well-heeled political class and Mr. Smitherman’s cabinet contacts...............

" “City’s big,” he declared, as the vehicle crawled through side streets. “Holy lord, it’s big. You think you know the city well, and then you run for mayor ….”更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / 今天邮报分析斯密斯人选举失败的原因:1.e-health丑闻。2.工会出来为他背书。3.打多元文化族裔牌。其中第3点是国人喜欢玩的游戏,动辄以少数族裔自居搞政治,殊不知在为公共利益服务的选举中,少数族裔牌是狭义且领其他族裔反感的玩法,多元文化葬送了斯密斯人的竞选。。。
    • 恩,当年的芭芭拉老太就输在这了
    • 斯密斯人在选举中Favor穆斯林,没想到得罪了犹太社区,犹太社区以其强大的政治经济影响力让斯密斯人死翘翘了。族裔牌是一个双刃剑,在选举中使不得。加拿大多元文化使得各族裔孤立甚至导致对立,美国的各族裔归化的国策比多元文化好。。。
      • 我一直以为你们搞世界大同,五色共服,黄白不分,想不到你们也有清醒认识到族裔对立的基本事实的一天。
      • 什么时候我们华人社区的影响力也和犹太人似的,就好了。不过,我觉得这不太可能实现。因为我们华人好像只能等到类似国家存亡的大事上,才能一致起来。其他小事,都吵闹不停,没有统一意见的时候。
        • 中国就连抗日的时候还要靠抓壮丁来补充兵员,参军人数不到人口的2%。二战没有打到加拿大门口,加拿大却有约10%的人口志愿参军。
        • 亲不亲,阶级分。跌派恨涨派,涨派恨JJ
      • 好像穆斯林并不买他单啊,不然就不会有那个歧视gay的海报出现了
        • 屎咪屎人每次辩论都带着一大帮包头的,留大胡子,穿戴脏兮兮的阿差,每当他说过一段,这帮人就大呼小叫地叫好起哄,看上去真是很吓人的.一想到十年后这帮人将成为多伦多的主要人口,我就铁了心支持福胖胖啦,
    • 昨天OMNI新闻报道“华人媒体”为多伦多新当选的华人市议员开庆功会,16位当选的华人市议员只有7位到场,我看新闻就想,这7位下届真是不想连任了,自己拿砖头往自己脑袋上拍,还喜气洋洋。
      • Who cares about whether they attended some celebration events? As long as they do their job right the voters will re-elect them.
      • 给钱就去,太忙就别去,多大个事穷讲究啥。
    • 密西兄弟, 恕我冒昧, 我觉的你没读懂文章的要点, 文章的关键点是斯密斯选举失败的原因是其竞选政见左右摇摆不定,误断选民心思, 尤其是在Davis Miller 取舍上,让Ford 占了上风, 等反应过来,已经难已回身
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Here are some key points:

      " From the start, Mr. Smitherman’s team suffered from being a “big tent” affair with myriad advisers from across the political spectrum. His strategists knew the election was fast becoming a referendum on Mayor David Miller’s approach to governing, set against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and irritation over tax hikes and political perks. Polling data showed the city was deeply split over Mr. Miller’s record. But Mr. Smitherman and his brain trust couldn’t decide which side of the urban divide they wanted to win over. When they finally placed their bets, it was too late.

      In many ways, Mr. Smitherman put himself at a disadvantage from the outset, says Ryerson University politics professor Myer Siemiatycki: He played a quiet, cagey campaign early on, let his opponents set the agenda and failed to adequately set himself apart afterwards.

      “He needed to more pointedly and directly try to puncture the assumption that the city was totally broken down and in need of a major overhaul. Because once he conceded that, he could not win ... He could not sell himself as the better fixer.”
      ............................

      " From the start, Mr. Smitherman’s basically centrist instincts posed a challenge for his campaign. Some advisers, citing an early internal poll showing surprisingly strong support for Mr. Miller and the progressive approach, argued for a left-leaning campaign. Others wanted Mr. Smitherman to lean right, promising, for example, to privatize garbage collection................"

      ................
      " When Mr. Smitherman launched his campaign in early September, his “recalibrated” image (a waste fighter who’d freeze taxes for a year and personally lead a search-and-destroy mission for fiscal flab) reflected Mr. Marzolini’s assessment of the problem: Mr. Ford’s rap sheet didn’t matter because the groundswell behind him was “like a 1960s protest,” he said.

      “To take on Rob Ford, you have to take him on in his environment.”

      He urged Mr. Smitherman to revisit the pugilistic persona he’d cultivated when the Liberals were in opposition. “When you’re going up against Ford,” Mr. Marzolini said, “you have to be yourself.”

      Mr. Marzolini admits he never set foot in Mr. Smitherman’s campaign office, and his advice bothered some strategists who felt the candidate was abandoning his natural centre-left constituency in a bid to out-Ford Mr. Ford.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

      On the hustings, Mr. Smitherman increasingly set aside Mr. Marzolini’s recommendations and talked up his “progressive” values and positive vision, messages reinforced by a parade of high profile endorsements, mainly drawn from Toronto’s well-heeled political class and Mr. Smitherman’s cabinet contacts...............

      " “City’s big,” he declared, as the vehicle crawled through side streets. “Holy lord, it’s big. You think you know the city well, and then you run for mayor ….”更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • 文中有许多要点,我只是取我所需,因为我不同意你摘录的这个要点是他败选的主要原因。。。
        • 密西兄弟, 你可以只取你所需, 分析选举, 也可以不同意这个要点是他败选的主要原因, 但要说明是你的观点分析, 不要说是" 今天邮报分析斯密斯人选举失败的原因......." This is misleading
          • Misleading? Ha, a sort of。。。this is so called eyeballs attracted strategy。。。:-)
            • " eyeballs attracted strategy". Good one, Ford was using same strategy during the election. This is why Ford won and Smitherman lost.
          • Good point...Huiming. LZ borrowed the credit of Global and Mails and then threw in his points
    • 看你们争来争去的,不就是一个捏柿子的手法吗?去菜市场问问老太太是怎么挑西红柿的?她会说:我教FORD挑软的捏,那个斯民呵,真是个死脑筋,他要捏硬的。软的一捏就服:捏得好,捏得好,捏的我痒痒;硬的让你的爪子卡巴一响。
    • 部分同意,1.e-health丑闻 是其失败的主要原因之一,不同意 2、3, 这两个有一定影响但不足以关键影响;还有另一个主要原因就是大家都不愿说出来的那个,当然他自己也不会承认那个原因~~~
      • 做得说不得。老史同志千不该万不该,不该在竞选失败后还抱着自己的干儿子上台,扮演一个居家好“爸爸”男人的形象。他如果破口大骂FXXX,我下次还有可能选他。
        • 它的角色是“妈妈”
        • 这玩意存在就算了,再宣传放大就有点对人类不负责了。
    • 多市人民终于盼来了大救星。其实,大家是对自由党不满。保守党谁出面都能赢。JOHN可惜了。不过JOHN当市长,多伦多更惨。这家伙太棉了。
      • 庄朵丽的退选,也是史同志失败的主要原因。
        • John Tory 也是误判形势,选输选怕了.
          • 时事造淫熊。老庄无论是口才风度还是人脉,都要胜过这个福大炮筒。
            • 木有用,这哥们最善于在关键时候掉链子。实际上Smitherman的失败,是McGuinty政府的政绩决定的
            • 老庄一个窝囊废而已。
              • agree. He couldn't run Rogers well, how can he run a city. He may be a nice guy, that is all.
                • 是啊,上回他输给了卖贱地,就是窝囊透顶。total lack of judgement。气死俺了。
                • 别搞错,他当年在Rogers干的不错的
    • 说实在的,47% vs35%, 明白着是竞选战略路线错误,没搞清选民心思,可怜Smitherman 那些Liberal and NDP 大牌竞选战略专家, 输给了Ford's Nick, Nick 那哥们,35岁,street smart, 据说以前是个汽车厂工人. Smitherman 输得太窝囊. 用人不当,导致竞选路线失误,
    • 我觉得主最要原因就是大家都不愿说出来的那个,几个西人朋友都说选谁都不要选SmitherWOMAN,华人圈子里能认同这事就更少了。
      • 可能,我家LD从不投票,这次下班回家放下包,就出去投票,说选谁也不能让smitherman当市长
      • 不是大家不愿说,而是西人的主流媒体不能说。当然肉联也是不能说的,虚伪得直追西方主流文化。
        • 现在已经文明多了。
    • Smithman是个政客是个投机分子,自己没有明确的观点或强烈的愿望要做些什么,都是听听这个说说这个,承诺的东西基本都是为了竞选。Ford不一样,有激情,有自己的见地,嫉恶如仇,观点鲜明,而且很多竞选的承诺是他这些年都已经在做的,不是投机取巧为了竞选而造出来的。
      • 好像政客没有不是投机分子的。