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刘仰:一个世界帝国的老去 (2009-12-15 ZT)

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛19世纪、20世纪相交之时,美国的GDP已经超过了大英帝国。此前约10年,马汉提出了“海权论”,美国通过了《海军法案》,开始大规模发展海军,把防御性海军变成进攻性力量。在19世纪即将过去的时候,西元1898年,美国挑了一个软柿子,向西班牙这个最衰老、最虚弱的老牌殖民者下手。牛刀小试,西班牙这个曾经不可一世的头号殖民者,与美国短暂交手后彻底认输,交出了最后的殖民地,老老实实地承认自己终于只是一个二三流国家。几十年后,佛朗哥试图借助法西斯再次振兴西班牙,重归大国行列,因没有帮手而无济于事。美西战争像是一个预言:一个新的世界霸主即将出现,它开始觊觎老殖民者的盘中餐。但是,那时的美国还没有彻底摆脱门罗主义、关门主义的影响,大英帝国作为当时的世界霸主,暂时还没有感到威胁。
美西战争后不久,大英帝国独自发动了一场战争,继续扩大帝国的版图和势力范围,但是,这场战争终止了大英帝国的扩张。这场战争位于南非,史称第二次布尔战争。大英帝国在此之前曾经发动过一次布尔战争,但第一次布尔战争规模较小,时间也就几个月,双方的伤亡和损失都不大。然而,进入20世纪,第二次布尔战争已成为对大英帝国的一场严峻考验——大英帝国还能所向无敌地继续扩张吗?大英帝国的正规军面对昨天还是农民的布尔人,打得异常艰难。布尔人也是殖民者,他们是荷兰人、葡萄牙人、法国人等老殖民者的后裔,是已经本地化的殖民者,他们把南非当成了自己的家园。而大英帝国看中的,是南非新发现的金矿和钻石矿。
正值鼎盛时期的大英帝国调动了本土以及加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰的力量,投入45万军队,35万匹马,10万匹骡子,1000多艘战舰,130多万吨战争物资。当时布尔人在南非建立的两个国家德兰士瓦和奥兰治,全部人口加起来不过44万,男性青壮年几乎全部上阵,不过8万多人。但是,布尔人在保卫自己家园的精神支撑下,与大英帝国对抗了两年半,男性青壮年损失70%,不得不与大英帝国谈判停战条件。虽然美西战争和布尔战争都是白人之间的战争,但是,战争的后果却落在有色人种的头上。美国获得西班牙原先的殖民地,对有色人种依然实行种族隔离。大英帝国为了拉拢同样是白人的布尔人,在布尔人“归化”后,对有色人种制定了更加严酷的种族隔离制度,并且维持了最长的时间,直到曼德拉出现才废除。
如果说美西战争预示着新霸主的崛起,那么布尔战争便是老霸主没落的开始。虽然大英帝国耗费巨资,没有输掉战争,也获得了金矿和钻石矿的利益,使得此后100多年全世界的钻石市场主要都被英国人掌控,但是,大英帝国再次为其他人树立了榜样:用武力抢夺财富。这一榜样的直接继承者就是后起的意大利、德国和日本,老殖民者不得不面对后起之秀的挑战。老殖民者靠武力抢夺财富,并且标榜自己的文明和先进,后起之秀沿着老殖民者指引的文明和先进的道路,向老殖民者发起了最强大的冲击。没有正义与非正义的区别。希特勒因集中营而臭名昭著,但是,集中营的发明者正是大英帝国。布尔战争期间,为了打击由布尔农民组成的游击队,英国设立了最早的集中营,将布尔人的妻儿关入集中营。在英国人的集中营里,共有26000多妇女儿童死亡,其中80%的死者不满16岁。幸亏布尔人的人口总数不多,幸亏战争持续时间不长,否则,大英帝国这一毒辣的狠招,肯定还将扩大这个数字。希特勒不过是效法大英帝国而已。我们今天看到的历史是胜利者书写的,但是,中国作为一个旁观者和受害者,应该以更客观的态度重新解释历史。中国要繁荣发展,没有榜样。没有一个西方国家有资格成为中国的榜样,它们都是强盗和侩子手。
与英国竭尽全力的布尔战争类似,100年后,美国发动了一场在中亚地区的战争(大英帝国的第一次布尔战争,类似美利坚帝国在上世纪90年代的海湾战争),战争规模更大,持续时间更长。这两场战争有很多相似之处。布尔战争以英国为主,拉了一些小兄弟帮忙。美国对伊拉克、阿富汗的战争同样以美国为主,也拉了一些小兄弟,摆出以多欺少打群架的样子。不同的是,英国从当年呼风唤雨的黑社会老大,变成了为新老大站脚助威的跟班。大英帝国的布尔战争为的是黄金和钻石,美利坚帝国的战争为的是石油和天然气。大英帝国打完布尔战争元气耗尽,此后唯一一场独立发动的马岛海战,不过是一个面子战争。美利坚帝国在石油战争后,也大伤了元气,此后是否还有能力独自发动大规模的战争令人怀疑。布尔战争中,英国以先进的战争机器对付自愿武装起来的布尔农民,打得极其艰苦。石油战争中,美国以更先进的战争武器对付以命相拼的“恐怖分子”,其艰苦程度不亚于当年的大英帝国。美国石油战争的持续时间已经超过越南战争,还看不到结束的日期。大英帝国的布尔战争顺便杀害了大量无辜的妇女儿童,美利坚帝国的石油战争捎带手残害的平民更多,只不过西方媒体很少报道而已。
布尔战争作为大英帝国衰落的起点,是一场以强欺弱的战争,美利坚帝国的石油战争同样是一场以强欺弱的战争。这两场战争,双方实力都相差悬殊,但是,两个强者欺负弱小者都胜之不易。布尔战争最终以谈判妥协的方式走到终点,石油战争最终的结局,在美军撤出的那一天,也将是谈判和妥协,而不会有光荣的彻底胜利。这是两场胜利者脸上无光的战争,都是名不正言不顺的战争,都是没有荣誉的战争。布尔战争之后,大英帝国不再坚持一贯主张的自由贸易口号,而是同时挥舞自由贸易和保护主义的旗帜,与今天的美利坚帝国多么相似。布尔战争之后不到半个世纪,大英帝国的荣耀彻底失去,丘吉尔说他为此痛不欲生。那么,为美利坚帝国的末日而痛不欲生的人会是谁?应该不会是奥巴马,但一定会有其他人。更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / 奥巴马,作为一名美国人,作为一位美国总统,作为一名热爱战争的美国黑人,领取了世界和平奖。这就是战争与和平。。。
    • 感觉有点讽刺.
    • 老黑今天大讲正义战争的必要性,和当年老共的言论如出一辙。可见,世界上所有的政客都是一路货。
    • 有个单位以前出国旅游,二个名额,局长是要去的,无记名投票另一个,统计结果大家都是一票,只好每人填两个名字,然后看门老王头全票通过。
    • 没办法,人家是老大。强权就是真理。我啥也不说,等着中国强大。
    • 奥巴马演讲受到了美国政界和媒体的一致好评,不论是自由派还是保守派报纸,不论是共和党还是民主党,连那个保守女人佩林也对其赞赏有佳,这在美国历史上是不多见的。劝那些信口开河的人仔细拜读奥巴马演讲中的核心价值之后,再出来放厥词不晚。。。
      • 支持也好不支持也好,人家是遵守游戏规则一票一票真金白银选上去的,俺们省长麦秆田也是如此,不爽他下次别忘了投票。
        • 是,老美也有老美自己的游戏规则,竞选总统的庞大费用不会是凭空就有人心甘情愿给掏的,而且,如果不乖乖的,肯尼迪就是个榜样。。。从来没觉得米国加拿大的政治会高尚到哪里去,只不过外观上做的不像有些国家那么土鳖罢了
          • 交多少税,交了税要怎么花,本身就是个伤感情的俗事,怎么可能高尚起来?相对公平一点就可以了。
      • 老油偏偏要信口开河给你放点厥词:彼族所谓的核心价值,君君臣臣可以不要,父父子子你抛得开嘛。
        • 万恶的CAS太坏了,把老油咸弟气成了酱紫!听哥一句劝,别钻牛角尖,Life Is Short, Have fun。。。
        • 恩那,身为一名中年ws男,在可见的将来是做不了皇帝的,所以这个三纲里面君为臣纲是一定要去掉的,父为子纲夫为妻纲,我看很好啊。嘿嘿
      • 我昨天正在睡梦中,忽然惊醒,原来Foxnews正在直播Obama的演讲。一听下去,睡意全消。这次的讲话绝对计入史册,和上次费城的不相上下。
        在这里大放厥词的,没几个真听了的,即使听了,也没几个听懂其含义的。
        • 你看见他的表情了吗?非常勉强,似乎他自己都不同意一个President of a nation in two wars适合得这个奖,颁奖后,他取消所有传统庆祝仪式,迅速低调离开,令瑞典朝野十分尴尬愤怒。这些举动,估计可以计入诺贝尔奖历史史册。。。
          • 给他颁这个奖项的初衷,不过是爱好和平的欧洲人民一厢情愿。动一下脚趾头也可以想得出来,总统先生,首先要负责的是美国利益,跟世界和平有个P干。
            • 也听说过, 提名奥巴马诺奖的那群人, 或者挑选奥巴马诺奖的评委会成员,试图通过这个奖,左右美国政策,让他更"和平"一点.奥巴马不论竞选中还是上任后,都不是"和平"主义者,有一群人想通过诺奖改变奥的(至少是)外交政策,奥8M那么聪明的人,能就这么被忽悠了?看看他的受奖演讲
              你要我和平,我说武力是必要的,战争是合理的。

              一口顶回去。
        • 老冒同志,马屁不是这样拍地。你要说这位人望过气的总统,当选史上最牛的大嘴总统,载入史册,我信。
      • BS, I couldn't care less.
        • pardon me?。。。
      • 原来只要是美国人的核心价值的,就是信口开河,放厥词;只要是受到了美国政界和媒体的一致好评的,世界人民就必须支持,受教了。
    • 什么“世界和平奖”?诺贝尔和平奖而已。不是奥八哥的问题,是诺贝尔平委会的问题。这个诺贝尔和平奖,几乎是个joke。
    • Remarks by the President at the Acceptance of the Nobel Peace Prize
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Oslo City Hall
      Oslo, Norway

      1:44 P.M. CET

      THE PRESIDENT: Your Majesties, Your Royal Highnesses, distinguished members of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, citizens of America, and citizens of the world:

      I receive this honor with deep gratitude and great humility. It is an award that speaks to our highest aspirations -- that for all the cruelty and hardship of our world, we are not mere prisoners of fate. Our actions matter, and can bend history in the direction of justice.

      And yet I would be remiss if I did not acknowledge the considerable controversy that your generous decision has generated. (Laughter.) In part, this is because I am at the beginning, and not the end, of my labors on the world stage. Compared to some of the giants of history who've received this prize -- Schweitzer and King; Marshall and Mandela -- my accomplishments are slight. And then there are the men and women around the world who have been jailed and beaten in the pursuit of justice; those who toil in humanitarian organizations to relieve suffering; the unrecognized millions whose quiet acts of courage and compassion inspire even the most hardened cynics. I cannot argue with those who find these men and women -- some known, some obscure to all but those they help -- to be far more deserving of this honor than I.

      But perhaps the most profound issue surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the Commander-in-Chief of the military of a nation in the midst of two wars. One of these wars is winding down. The other is a conflict that America did not seek; one in which we are joined by 42 other countries -- including Norway -- in an effort to defend ourselves and all nations from further attacks.

      Still, we are at war, and I'm responsible for the deployment of thousands of young Americans to battle in a distant land. Some will kill, and some will be killed. And so I come here with an acute sense of the costs of armed conflict -- filled with difficult questions about the relationship between war and peace, and our effort to replace one with the other.

      Now these questions are not new. War, in one form or another, appeared with the first man. At the dawn of history, its morality was not questioned; it was simply a fact, like drought or disease -- the manner in which tribes and then civilizations sought power and settled their differences.

      And over time, as codes of law sought to control violence within groups, so did philosophers and clerics and statesmen seek to regulate the destructive power of war. The concept of a "just war" emerged, suggesting that war is justified only when certain conditions were met: if it is waged as a last resort or in self-defense; if the force used is proportional; and if, whenever possible, civilians are spared from violence.

      Of course, we know that for most of history, this concept of "just war" was rarely observed. The capacity of human beings to think up new ways to kill one another proved inexhaustible, as did our capacity to exempt from mercy those who look different or pray to a different God. Wars between armies gave way to wars between nations -- total wars in which the distinction between combatant and civilian became blurred. In the span of 30 years, such carnage would twice engulf this continent. And while it's hard to conceive of a cause more just than the defeat of the Third Reich and the Axis powers, World War II was a conflict in which the total number of civilians who died exceeded the number of soldiers who perished.

      In the wake of such destruction, and with the advent of the nuclear age, it became clear to victor and vanquished alike that the world needed institutions to prevent another world war. And so, a quarter century after the United States Senate rejected the League of Nations -- an idea for which Woodrow Wilson received this prize -- America led the world in constructing an architecture to keep the peace: a Marshall Plan and a United Nations, mechanisms to govern the waging of war, treaties to protect human rights, prevent genocide, restrict the most dangerous weapons.

      In many ways, these efforts succeeded. Yes, terrible wars have been fought, and atrocities committed. But there has been no Third World War. The Cold War ended with jubilant crowds dismantling a wall. Commerce has stitched much of the world together. Billions have been lifted from poverty. The ideals of liberty and self-determination, equality and the rule of law have haltingly advanced. We are the heirs of the fortitude and foresight of generations past, and it is a legacy for which my own country is rightfully proud.

      And yet, a decade into a new century, this old architecture is buckling under the weight of new threats. The world may no longer shudder at the prospect of war between two nuclear superpowers, but proliferation may increase the risk of catastrophe. Terrorism has long been a tactic, but modern technology allows a few small men with outsized rage to murder innocents on a horrific scale.

      Moreover, wars between nations have increasingly given way to wars within nations. The resurgence of ethnic or sectarian conflicts; the growth of secessionist movements, insurgencies, and failed states -- all these things have increasingly trapped civilians in unending chaos. In today's wars, many more civilians are killed than soldiers; the seeds of future conflict are sown, economies are wrecked, civil societies torn asunder, refugees amassed, children scarred.

      I do not bring with me today a definitive solution to the problems of war. What I do know is that meeting these challenges will require the same vision, hard work, and persistence of those men and women who acted so boldly decades ago. And it will require us to think in new ways about the notions of just war and the imperatives of a just peace.

      We must begin by acknowledging the hard truth: We will not eradicate violent conflict in our lifetimes. There will be times when nations -- acting individually or in concert -- will find the use of force not only necessary but morally justified.

      I make this statement mindful of what Martin Luther King Jr. said in this same ceremony years ago: "Violence never brings permanent peace. It solves no social problem: it merely creates new and more complicated ones." As someone who stands here as a direct consequence of Dr. King's life work, I am living testimony to the moral force of non-violence. I know there's nothing weak -- nothing passive -- nothing naïve -- in the creed and lives of Gandhi and King.

      But as a head of state sworn to protect and defend my nation, I cannot be guided by their examples alone. I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people. For make no mistake: Evil does exist in the world. A non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler's armies. Negotiations cannot convince al Qaeda's leaders to lay down their arms. To say that force may sometimes be necessary is not a call to cynicism -- it is a recognition of history; the imperfections of man and the limits of reason.

      I raise this point, I begin with this point because in many countries there is a deep ambivalence about military action today, no matter what the cause. And at times, this is joined by a reflexive suspicion of America, the world's sole military superpower.

      But the world must remember that it was not simply international institutions -- not just treaties and declarations -- that brought stability to a post-World War II world. Whatever mistakes we have made, the plain fact is this: The United States of America has helped underwrite global security for more than six decades with the blood of our citizens and the strength of our arms. The service and sacrifice of our men and women in uniform has promoted peace and prosperity from Germany to Korea, and enabled democracy to take hold in places like the Balkans. We have borne this burden not because we seek to impose our will. We have done so out of enlightened self-interest -- because we seek a better future for our children and grandchildren, and we believe that their lives will be better if others' children and grandchildren can live in freedom and prosperity.

      So yes, the instruments of war do have a role to play in preserving the peace. And yet this truth must coexist with another -- that no matter how justified, war promises human tragedy. The soldier's courage and sacrifice is full of glory, expressing devotion to country, to cause, to comrades in arms. But war itself is never glorious, and we must never trumpet it as such.

      So part of our challenge is reconciling these two seemingly inreconcilable truths -- that war is sometimes necessary, and war at some level is an expression of human folly. Concretely, we must direct our effort to the task that President Kennedy called for long ago. "Let us focus," he said, "on a more practical, more attainable peace, based not on a sudden revolution in human nature but on a gradual evolution in human institutions." A gradual evolution of human institutions.

      What might this evolution look like? What might these practical steps be?

      To begin with, I believe that all nations -- strong and weak alike -- must adhere to standards that govern the use of force. I -- like any head of state -- reserve the right to act unilaterally if necessary to defend my nation. Nevertheless, I am convinced that adhering to standards, international standards, strengthens those who do, and isolates and weakens those who don't.

      The world rallied around America after the 9/11 attacks, and continues to support our efforts in Afghanistan, because of the horror of those senseless attacks and the recognized principle of self-defense. Likewise, the world recognized the need to confront Saddam Hussein when he invaded Kuwait -- a consensus that sent a clear message to all about the cost of aggression.

      Furthermore, America -- in fact, no nation -- can insist that others follow the rules of the road if we refuse to follow them ourselves. For when we don't, our actions appear arbitrary and undercut the legitimacy of future interventions, no matter how justified.

      And this becomes particularly important when the purpose of military action extends beyond self-defense or the defense of one nation against an aggressor. More and more, we all confront difficult questions about how to prevent the slaughter of civilians by their own government, or to stop a civil war whose violence and suffering can engulf an entire region.

      I believe that force can be justified on humanitarian grounds, as it was in the Balkans, or in other places that have been scarred by war. Inaction tears at our conscience and can lead to more costly intervention later. That's why all responsible nations must embrace the role that militaries with a clear mandate can play to keep the peace.

      America's commitment to global security will never waver. But in a world in which threats are more diffuse, and missions more complex, America cannot act alone. America alone cannot secure the peace. This is true in Afghanistan. This is true in failed states like Somalia, where terrorism and piracy is joined by famine and human suffering. And sadly, it will continue to be true in unstable regions for years to come.

      The leaders and soldiers of NATO countries, and other friends and allies, demonstrate this truth through the capacity and courage they've shown in Afghanistan. But in many countries, there is a disconnect between the efforts of those who serve and the ambivalence of the broader public. I understand why war is not popular, but I also know this: The belief that peace is desirable is rarely enough to achieve it. Peace requires responsibility. Peace entails sacrifice. That's why NATO continues to be indispensable. That's why we must strengthen U.N. and regional peacekeeping, and not leave the task to a few countries. That's why we honor those who return home from peacekeeping and training abroad to Oslo and Rome; to Ottawa and Sydney; to Dhaka and Kigali -- we honor them not as makers of war, but of wagers -- but as wagers of peace.

      Let me make one final point about the use of force. Even as we make difficult decisions about going to war, we must also think clearly about how we fight it. The Nobel Committee recognized this truth in awarding its first prize for peace to Henry Dunant -- the founder of the Red Cross, and a driving force behind the Geneva Conventions.

      Where force is necessary, we have a moral and strategic interest in binding ourselves to certain rules of conduct. And even as we confront a vicious adversary that abides by no rules, I believe the United States of America must remain a standard bearer in the conduct of war. That is what makes us different from those whom we fight. That is a source of our strength. That is why I prohibited torture. That is why I ordered the prison at Guantanamo Bay closed. And that is why I have reaffirmed America's commitment to abide by the Geneva Conventions. We lose ourselves when we compromise the very ideals that we fight to defend. (Applause.) And we honor -- we honor those ideals by upholding them not when it's easy, but when it is hard.

      I have spoken at some length to the question that must weigh on our minds and our hearts as we choose to wage war. But let me now turn to our effort to avoid such tragic choices, and speak of three ways that we can build a just and lasting peace.

      First, in dealing with those nations that break rules and laws, I believe that we must develop alternatives to violence that are tough enough to actually change behavior -- for if we want a lasting peace, then the words of the international community must mean something. Those regimes that break the rules must be held accountable. Sanctions must exact a real price. Intransigence must be met with increased pressure -- and such pressure exists only when the world stands together as one.

      One urgent example is the effort to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, and to seek a world without them. In the middle of the last century, nations agreed to be bound by a treaty whose bargain is clear: All will have access to peaceful nuclear power; those without nuclear weapons will forsake them; and those with nuclear weapons will work towards disarmament. I am committed to upholding this treaty. It is a centerpiece of my foreign policy. And I'm working with President Medvedev to reduce America and Russia's nuclear stockpiles.

      But it is also incumbent upon all of us to insist that nations like Iran and North Korea do not game the system. Those who claim to respect international law cannot avert their eyes when those laws are flouted. Those who care for their own security cannot ignore the danger of an arms race in the Middle East or East Asia. Those who seek peace cannot stand idly by as nations arm themselves for nuclear war.

      The same principle applies to those who violate international laws by brutalizing their own people. When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo, repression in Burma -- there must be consequences. Yes, there will be engagement; yes, there will be diplomacy -- but there must be consequences when those things fail. And the closer we stand together, the less likely we will be faced with the choice between armed intervention and complicity in oppression.

      This brings me to a second point -- the nature of the peace that we seek. For peace is not merely the absence of visible conflict. Only a just peace based on the inherent rights and dignity of every individual can truly be lasting.

      It was this insight that drove drafters of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights after the Second World War. In the wake of devastation, they recognized that if human rights are not protected, peace is a hollow promise.

      And yet too often, these words are ignored. For some countries, the failure to uphold human rights is excused by the false suggestion that these are somehow Western principles, foreign to local cultures or stages of a nation's development. And within America, there has long been a tension between those who describe themselves as realists or idealists -- a tension that suggests a stark choice between the narrow pursuit of interests or an endless campaign to impose our values around the world.

      I reject these choices. I believe that peace is unstable where citizens are denied the right to speak freely or worship as they please; choose their own leaders or assemble without fear. Pent-up grievances fester, and the suppression of tribal and religious identity can lead to violence. We also know that the opposite is true. Only when Europe became free did it finally find peace. America has never fought a war against a democracy, and our closest friends are governments that protect the rights of their citizens. No matter how callously defined, neither America's interests -- nor the world's -- are served by the denial of human aspirations.

      So even as we respect the unique culture and traditions of different countries, America will always be a voice for those aspirations that are universal. We will bear witness to the quiet dignity of reformers like Aung Sang Suu Kyi; to the bravery of Zimbabweans who cast their ballots in the face of beatings; to the hundreds of thousands who have marched silently through the streets of Iran. It is telling that the leaders of these governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation. And it is the responsibility of all free people and free nations to make clear that these movements -- these movements of hope and history -- they have us on their side.

      Let me also say this: The promotion of human rights cannot be about exhortation alone. At times, it must be coupled with painstaking diplomacy. I know that engagement with repressive regimes lacks the satisfying purity of indignation. But I also know that sanctions without outreach -- condemnation without discussion -- can carry forward only a crippling status quo. No repressive regime can move down a new path unless it has the choice of an open door.

      In light of the Cultural Revolution's horrors, Nixon's meeting with Mao appeared inexcusable -- and yet it surely helped set China on a path where millions of its citizens have been lifted from poverty and connected to open societies. Pope John Paul's engagement with Poland created space not just for the Catholic Church, but for labor leaders like Lech Walesa. Ronald Reagan's efforts on arms control and embrace of perestroika not only improved relations with the Soviet Union, but empowered dissidents throughout Eastern Europe. There's no simple formula here. But we must try as best we can to balance isolation and engagement, pressure and incentives, so that human rights and dignity are advanced over time.

      Third, a just peace includes not only civil and political rights -- it must encompass economic security and opportunity. For true peace is not just freedom from fear, but freedom from want.

      It is undoubtedly true that development rarely takes root without security; it is also true that security does not exist where human beings do not have access to enough food, or clean water, or the medicine and shelter they need to survive. It does not exist where children can't aspire to a decent education or a job that supports a family. The absence of hope can rot a society from within.

      And that's why helping farmers feed their own people -- or nations educate their children and care for the sick -- is not mere charity. It's also why the world must come together to confront climate change. There is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement -- all of which will fuel more conflict for decades. For this reason, it is not merely scientists and environmental activists who call for swift and forceful action -- it's military leaders in my own country and others who understand our common security hangs in the balance.

      Agreements among nations. Strong institutions. Support for human rights. Investments in development. All these are vital ingredients in bringing about the evolution that President Kennedy spoke about. And yet, I do not believe that we will have the will, the determination, the staying power, to complete this work without something more -- and that's the continued expansion of our moral imagination; an insistence that there's something irreducible that we all share.

      As the world grows smaller, you might think it would be easier for human beings to recognize how similar we are; to understand that we're all basically seeking the same things; that we all hope for the chance to live out our lives with some measure of happiness and fulfillment for ourselves and our families.

      And yet somehow, given the dizzying pace of globalization, the cultural leveling of modernity, it perhaps comes as no surprise that people fear the loss of what they cherish in their particular identities -- their race, their tribe, and perhaps most powerfully their religion. In some places, this fear has led to conflict. At times, it even feels like we're moving backwards. We see it in the Middle East, as the conflict between Arabs and Jews seems to harden. We see it in nations that are torn asunder by tribal lines.

      And most dangerously, we see it in the way that religion is used to justify the murder of innocents by those who have distorted and defiled the great religion of Islam, and who attacked my country from Afghanistan. These extremists are not the first to kill in the name of God; the cruelties of the Crusades are amply recorded. But they remind us that no Holy War can ever be a just war. For if you truly believe that you are carrying out divine will, then there is no need for restraint -- no need to spare the pregnant mother, or the medic, or the Red Cross worker, or even a person of one's own faith. Such a warped view of religion is not just incompatible with the concept of peace, but I believe it's incompatible with the very purpose of faith -- for the one rule that lies at the heart of every major religion is that we do unto others as we would have them do unto us.

      Adhering to this law of love has always been the core struggle of human nature. For we are fallible. We make mistakes, and fall victim to the temptations of pride, and power, and sometimes evil. Even those of us with the best of intentions will at times fail to right the wrongs before us.

      But we do not have to think that human nature is perfect for us to still believe that the human condition can be perfected. We do not have to live in an idealized world to still reach for those ideals that will make it a better place. The non-violence practiced by men like Gandhi and King may not have been practical or possible in every circumstance, but the love that they preached -- their fundamental faith in human progress -- that must always be the North Star that guides us on our journey.

      For if we lose that faith -- if we dismiss it as silly or naïve; if we divorce it from the decisions that we make on issues of war and peace -- then we lose what's best about humanity. We lose our sense of possibility. We lose our moral compass.

      Like generations have before us, we must reject that future. As Dr. King said at this occasion so many years ago, "I refuse to accept despair as the final response to the ambiguities of history. I refuse to accept the idea that the 'isness' of man's present condition makes him morally incapable of reaching up for the eternal 'oughtness' that forever confronts him."

      Let us reach for the world that ought to be -- that spark of the divine that still stirs within each of our souls. (Applause.)

      Somewhere today, in the here and now, in the world as it is, a soldier sees he's outgunned, but stands firm to keep the peace. Somewhere today, in this world, a young protestor awaits the brutality of her government, but has the courage to march on. Somewhere today, a mother facing punishing poverty still takes the time to teach her child, scrapes together what few coins she has to send that child to school -- because she believes that a cruel world still has a place for that child's dreams.

      Let us live by their example. We can acknowledge that oppression will always be with us, and still strive for justice. We can admit the intractability of depravation, and still strive for dignity. Clear-eyed, we can understand that there will be war, and still strive for peace. We can do that -- for that is the story of human progress; that's the hope of all the world; and at this moment of challenge, that must be our work here on Earth.

      Thank you very much. (Applause.)

      END
      2:20 P.M. CET更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • 拜读了,真好。就一个问题:是他自己写的还是秘书写的?
        原谅俺的中国人思维。
        • 重要吗,要是他自个不满意,秘书还得加班重写。
          • 也对哈。
        • 据说又是那个在Starbucks喝着咖啡,抱着Laptop,一气喝成的毛头小子写的。。。
          • 难得还有你们这些老帮子,被个文学青年舞文弄墨的弄得热情高胀,差点就高潮。
            • Be a man, have fun, for your good health, better not to be raged all the time。。。
          • 军功章里有O8的一半,也有毛头的一半。
            • no war, no P.
      • Very impressive speech. President Obama knows what his main responsibilities are, and has the courage to face the realities of the (imperfect) world we live in. He has been learning and changing every day on the job.
        Very well said -- "As someone who stands here as a direct consequence of Dr. King's life work, I am living testimony to the moral force of non-violence. I know there's nothing weak -- nothing passive -- in the creed and lives of Gandhi and King. But as a head of state sworn to protect and defend my nation, I cannot be guided by their examples alone. I face the world as it is, and cannot stand idle in the face of threats to the American people. For make no mistake: Evil does exist in the world. A non-violent movement could not have halted Hitler's armies. Negotiations cannot convince al Qaeda's leaders to lay down their arms. To say that force may sometimes be necessary is not a call to cynicism -- it is a recognition of history; the imperfections of man and the limits of reason".
        • 他只是做了该做的和必须做的,其实说什么并不很重要。
          • If he deliverred the same speech during the election, there's a good chance he would not get elected. Most people are idealistic, they want their prosperity and freedom but don't want to pay a price for it.
            Only when Obama became the commander-in-chief, he began to understand what the realities are. In many ways, Bush just did what he had to do as the US President during a challenging time in the nation's history.
            • 我从来认为站在美国人的立场上,从来没错的。但是也得赢了才算。搞出那么多事情,这些个后果,戏还没收场呢,前车之鉴。我说过很多人会越来越迷茫的,因为现实不代表真实。
      • 这简直太恶心了。简直就是做婊子立牌坊,杀人还要展现自己的仁慈。无论段落转折多么巧妙,也是从和平转折到战争。
        • 可怜的奥巴马,已经不是原来的奥巴马, 他已经变成了世界第一级上杀人凶手。。。
    • 奥巴马代表美国去领奖的。没有美国的维持,这个世界会有更多的战争。有许多萨达姆类的人物准备吞并身边的科威特。200多个国家是不稳定的结构,战国七雄那种才是大体稳定的。
      • 你的意思是说,美国是世界的爷爷了?
        • 美国是义务警察,不过有点自私。但是大体上还维持着和平。美国当然不是圣人,和平是因为大资本家们做全球生意的需要。不管他们是出于私心,还是公心,和平了大家都好过日子。
          • 美国在索马里本来想好好当回警察,但是损兵折将,黑鹰坠落。灰溜溜的撤军回国,看看现在索马里乱成什么样子,海盗猖獗成什么样子
            • 《人民日报》就此刊登文章说:“美国舆论一片哗然,一致抨击美国政府出兵索马里。同时,国际上的批评也不绝于耳:埃及外长穆萨表示,目前索马里发生的一切,将会给索马里民族和解进程增加新的障碍;
              法国国防部长莱澳塔尔指责美国的所作所为超出了“人道主义使命”的范畴,变成了“不能容忍的对抗”;德国报刊称,美国正在索马里进行“一场肮脏的战争”。
            • 美国在伊拉克本来想好好当回警察,坚持不撤军回国,看看现在伊拉克乱成什么样子,恐怖分子猖獗成什么样子
    • 刘仰:一个世界帝国的老去 (2009-12-15 ZT)
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛19世纪、20世纪相交之时,美国的GDP已经超过了大英帝国。此前约10年,马汉提出了“海权论”,美国通过了《海军法案》,开始大规模发展海军,把防御性海军变成进攻性力量。在19世纪即将过去的时候,西元1898年,美国挑了一个软柿子,向西班牙这个最衰老、最虚弱的老牌殖民者下手。牛刀小试,西班牙这个曾经不可一世的头号殖民者,与美国短暂交手后彻底认输,交出了最后的殖民地,老老实实地承认自己终于只是一个二三流国家。几十年后,佛朗哥试图借助法西斯再次振兴西班牙,重归大国行列,因没有帮手而无济于事。美西战争像是一个预言:一个新的世界霸主即将出现,它开始觊觎老殖民者的盘中餐。但是,那时的美国还没有彻底摆脱门罗主义、关门主义的影响,大英帝国作为当时的世界霸主,暂时还没有感到威胁。
      美西战争后不久,大英帝国独自发动了一场战争,继续扩大帝国的版图和势力范围,但是,这场战争终止了大英帝国的扩张。这场战争位于南非,史称第二次布尔战争。大英帝国在此之前曾经发动过一次布尔战争,但第一次布尔战争规模较小,时间也就几个月,双方的伤亡和损失都不大。然而,进入20世纪,第二次布尔战争已成为对大英帝国的一场严峻考验——大英帝国还能所向无敌地继续扩张吗?大英帝国的正规军面对昨天还是农民的布尔人,打得异常艰难。布尔人也是殖民者,他们是荷兰人、葡萄牙人、法国人等老殖民者的后裔,是已经本地化的殖民者,他们把南非当成了自己的家园。而大英帝国看中的,是南非新发现的金矿和钻石矿。
      正值鼎盛时期的大英帝国调动了本土以及加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰的力量,投入45万军队,35万匹马,10万匹骡子,1000多艘战舰,130多万吨战争物资。当时布尔人在南非建立的两个国家德兰士瓦和奥兰治,全部人口加起来不过44万,男性青壮年几乎全部上阵,不过8万多人。但是,布尔人在保卫自己家园的精神支撑下,与大英帝国对抗了两年半,男性青壮年损失70%,不得不与大英帝国谈判停战条件。虽然美西战争和布尔战争都是白人之间的战争,但是,战争的后果却落在有色人种的头上。美国获得西班牙原先的殖民地,对有色人种依然实行种族隔离。大英帝国为了拉拢同样是白人的布尔人,在布尔人“归化”后,对有色人种制定了更加严酷的种族隔离制度,并且维持了最长的时间,直到曼德拉出现才废除。
      如果说美西战争预示着新霸主的崛起,那么布尔战争便是老霸主没落的开始。虽然大英帝国耗费巨资,没有输掉战争,也获得了金矿和钻石矿的利益,使得此后100多年全世界的钻石市场主要都被英国人掌控,但是,大英帝国再次为其他人树立了榜样:用武力抢夺财富。这一榜样的直接继承者就是后起的意大利、德国和日本,老殖民者不得不面对后起之秀的挑战。老殖民者靠武力抢夺财富,并且标榜自己的文明和先进,后起之秀沿着老殖民者指引的文明和先进的道路,向老殖民者发起了最强大的冲击。没有正义与非正义的区别。希特勒因集中营而臭名昭著,但是,集中营的发明者正是大英帝国。布尔战争期间,为了打击由布尔农民组成的游击队,英国设立了最早的集中营,将布尔人的妻儿关入集中营。在英国人的集中营里,共有26000多妇女儿童死亡,其中80%的死者不满16岁。幸亏布尔人的人口总数不多,幸亏战争持续时间不长,否则,大英帝国这一毒辣的狠招,肯定还将扩大这个数字。希特勒不过是效法大英帝国而已。我们今天看到的历史是胜利者书写的,但是,中国作为一个旁观者和受害者,应该以更客观的态度重新解释历史。中国要繁荣发展,没有榜样。没有一个西方国家有资格成为中国的榜样,它们都是强盗和侩子手。
      与英国竭尽全力的布尔战争类似,100年后,美国发动了一场在中亚地区的战争(大英帝国的第一次布尔战争,类似美利坚帝国在上世纪90年代的海湾战争),战争规模更大,持续时间更长。这两场战争有很多相似之处。布尔战争以英国为主,拉了一些小兄弟帮忙。美国对伊拉克、阿富汗的战争同样以美国为主,也拉了一些小兄弟,摆出以多欺少打群架的样子。不同的是,英国从当年呼风唤雨的黑社会老大,变成了为新老大站脚助威的跟班。大英帝国的布尔战争为的是黄金和钻石,美利坚帝国的战争为的是石油和天然气。大英帝国打完布尔战争元气耗尽,此后唯一一场独立发动的马岛海战,不过是一个面子战争。美利坚帝国在石油战争后,也大伤了元气,此后是否还有能力独自发动大规模的战争令人怀疑。布尔战争中,英国以先进的战争机器对付自愿武装起来的布尔农民,打得极其艰苦。石油战争中,美国以更先进的战争武器对付以命相拼的“恐怖分子”,其艰苦程度不亚于当年的大英帝国。美国石油战争的持续时间已经超过越南战争,还看不到结束的日期。大英帝国的布尔战争顺便杀害了大量无辜的妇女儿童,美利坚帝国的石油战争捎带手残害的平民更多,只不过西方媒体很少报道而已。
      布尔战争作为大英帝国衰落的起点,是一场以强欺弱的战争,美利坚帝国的石油战争同样是一场以强欺弱的战争。这两场战争,双方实力都相差悬殊,但是,两个强者欺负弱小者都胜之不易。布尔战争最终以谈判妥协的方式走到终点,石油战争最终的结局,在美军撤出的那一天,也将是谈判和妥协,而不会有光荣的彻底胜利。这是两场胜利者脸上无光的战争,都是名不正言不顺的战争,都是没有荣誉的战争。布尔战争之后,大英帝国不再坚持一贯主张的自由贸易口号,而是同时挥舞自由贸易和保护主义的旗帜,与今天的美利坚帝国多么相似。布尔战争之后不到半个世纪,大英帝国的荣耀彻底失去,丘吉尔说他为此痛不欲生。那么,为美利坚帝国的末日而痛不欲生的人会是谁?应该不会是奥巴马,但一定会有其他人。更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net