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If Pakistan's nukes fall into Taliban hands, Barack Obama will be faced with a momentous decision
Matt Gurney, National Post
Armed Pakistani Taliban gather at a hideout in the semi-autonomous tribal district of Orakzai yesterday. Rehman Ali, AFP, Getty Images
Monday's National Post editorial, "Pakistan falling to pieces," correctly noted that Pakistan is quickly becoming dangerously unstable -- and that the global economic crisis might provide an opportunity for traditionally marginalized elements of Pakistani society to seize power. The editorial is also right to call for all appropriate steps to be taken to ensure that, should such a nightmare scenario occur, Pakistan's nuclear weapons be swiftly disabled or destroyed, to keep them out of the hands of those who wish to harm the West.
The practical realities of what such an effort would entail, however, are disturbing to consider, and might well be too much to ask of the current White House administration.
Little is publicly known about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. After a series of tit-for-tat test detonations between India and Pakistan in 1998, much attention was paid to the size and capabilities of Pakistan's force. Today, experts believe that Pakistan's stockpile could be as small as 40 warheads, or as large as 120. The bombs are believed to be of a fairly primitive design, heavy and not much more powerful than the bomb dropped upon Hiroshima 64 years ago. Even so, they are enough to threaten India's major cities, and thus make an effective deterrent.
After 9/11, a newly security-conscious America reached out to Pervez Musharraf's dictatorship with offers of technical assistance in securing his warheads. The details of this $100-million program are largely classified. But it is known that the American objective was to make sure that the warheads were properly stored in well-guarded locations, and that technology known as Permissive Action Links (PAL) was offered to the Pakistanis. PALs are advanced locking devices that make it impossible for a warhead to be detonated accidentally or without the proper codes. Worrisomely, the Pakistanis declined the technology, reportedly out of fear that the Americans would install kill switches in the bombs, enabling Washington to disable them at will.
There was no doubt an ulterior motive to the American offers of help: Access to the program. While providing assistance, the United States would have learned much about the Pakistani arsenal. Combined with human intelligence and surveillance by satellites and perhaps drones, it can be hoped that the United States has obtained such information through other means, and so has at least a rough idea as to how many warheads Pakistan possesses, and where they are stored. No doubt such information is updated in real-time.
But the issue at hand is not the ability of the United States to monitor foreign military installations, but how the American government would react to an escalating crisis in Pakistan. On Wednesday, it was reported that the Taliban, having recently asserted its control over the Swat Valley, has now expanded even further, seizing control of, and imposing shariah law upon, the Buner district, 110 km from the capital of Islamabad.
Further attempts by the Taliban to seize more territory are likely. Given the pro-Taliban leanings of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus, a sudden Taliban takeover of the country is a worrisome and increasing possibility.
Were the Taliban to seize control of the government, Pakistan's nuclear weapons could be quickly seized and, presumably, moved to new, secret locations, putting nuclear weapons within reach of madmen such as Osama bin Laden -- or, at least, of madmen who share his agenda. The Americans, facing the prospect of atomic bombs being smuggled into North America, would be forced to take action.
If the crisis developed slowly, over a matter of days or weeks, a conventional air strike, perhaps in concert with a raid by Special Forces, would stand a good chance of destroying the Pakistani nuclear forces. But if the crisis was unexpected, the U. S. administration would face an unpleasant decision.
The fastest and most reliable way to deny the Taliban access to nuclear arms would be a pre-emptive strike by American nuclear missiles, which could totally obliterate the Pakistani storage facilities. The consequences would be brutal: massive collateral damage, hideous injuries, serious environmental contamination of the surrounding area and international outrage. It is also questionable whether President Obama, a man who has mused publicly about a world free of nuclear weapons, would be willing to use them for anything less than direct retaliation.
Regardless of these admitted drawbacks, the prospects of a world in which bin Laden's disciples can lay waste to great cities, or where a panicked India wreaks even more havoc by using its own nuclear forces massively, make the option of a limited and surgical first strike with American nuclear weapons a bleak if realistic scenario that everyone in the West should carefully consider.
mgurney.responses@gmail.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
If Pakistan's nukes fall into Taliban hands, Barack Obama will be faced with a momentous decision
Matt Gurney, National Post
Armed Pakistani Taliban gather at a hideout in the semi-autonomous tribal district of Orakzai yesterday. Rehman Ali, AFP, Getty Images
Monday's National Post editorial, "Pakistan falling to pieces," correctly noted that Pakistan is quickly becoming dangerously unstable -- and that the global economic crisis might provide an opportunity for traditionally marginalized elements of Pakistani society to seize power. The editorial is also right to call for all appropriate steps to be taken to ensure that, should such a nightmare scenario occur, Pakistan's nuclear weapons be swiftly disabled or destroyed, to keep them out of the hands of those who wish to harm the West.
The practical realities of what such an effort would entail, however, are disturbing to consider, and might well be too much to ask of the current White House administration.
Little is publicly known about the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. After a series of tit-for-tat test detonations between India and Pakistan in 1998, much attention was paid to the size and capabilities of Pakistan's force. Today, experts believe that Pakistan's stockpile could be as small as 40 warheads, or as large as 120. The bombs are believed to be of a fairly primitive design, heavy and not much more powerful than the bomb dropped upon Hiroshima 64 years ago. Even so, they are enough to threaten India's major cities, and thus make an effective deterrent.
After 9/11, a newly security-conscious America reached out to Pervez Musharraf's dictatorship with offers of technical assistance in securing his warheads. The details of this $100-million program are largely classified. But it is known that the American objective was to make sure that the warheads were properly stored in well-guarded locations, and that technology known as Permissive Action Links (PAL) was offered to the Pakistanis. PALs are advanced locking devices that make it impossible for a warhead to be detonated accidentally or without the proper codes. Worrisomely, the Pakistanis declined the technology, reportedly out of fear that the Americans would install kill switches in the bombs, enabling Washington to disable them at will.
There was no doubt an ulterior motive to the American offers of help: Access to the program. While providing assistance, the United States would have learned much about the Pakistani arsenal. Combined with human intelligence and surveillance by satellites and perhaps drones, it can be hoped that the United States has obtained such information through other means, and so has at least a rough idea as to how many warheads Pakistan possesses, and where they are stored. No doubt such information is updated in real-time.
But the issue at hand is not the ability of the United States to monitor foreign military installations, but how the American government would react to an escalating crisis in Pakistan. On Wednesday, it was reported that the Taliban, having recently asserted its control over the Swat Valley, has now expanded even further, seizing control of, and imposing shariah law upon, the Buner district, 110 km from the capital of Islamabad.
Further attempts by the Taliban to seize more territory are likely. Given the pro-Taliban leanings of the Pakistani intelligence apparatus, a sudden Taliban takeover of the country is a worrisome and increasing possibility.
Were the Taliban to seize control of the government, Pakistan's nuclear weapons could be quickly seized and, presumably, moved to new, secret locations, putting nuclear weapons within reach of madmen such as Osama bin Laden -- or, at least, of madmen who share his agenda. The Americans, facing the prospect of atomic bombs being smuggled into North America, would be forced to take action.
If the crisis developed slowly, over a matter of days or weeks, a conventional air strike, perhaps in concert with a raid by Special Forces, would stand a good chance of destroying the Pakistani nuclear forces. But if the crisis was unexpected, the U. S. administration would face an unpleasant decision.
The fastest and most reliable way to deny the Taliban access to nuclear arms would be a pre-emptive strike by American nuclear missiles, which could totally obliterate the Pakistani storage facilities. The consequences would be brutal: massive collateral damage, hideous injuries, serious environmental contamination of the surrounding area and international outrage. It is also questionable whether President Obama, a man who has mused publicly about a world free of nuclear weapons, would be willing to use them for anything less than direct retaliation.
Regardless of these admitted drawbacks, the prospects of a world in which bin Laden's disciples can lay waste to great cities, or where a panicked India wreaks even more havoc by using its own nuclear forces massively, make the option of a limited and surgical first strike with American nuclear weapons a bleak if realistic scenario that everyone in the West should carefully consider.
mgurney.responses@gmail.com更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net