Analysis
Things were going as planned.
I cut off all the players behind me + SB and got heads-up against the opponent in position. I got the aggressor to slow down and check to me. I also got some new information to digest.
His call meant he did not hold Ks. So he must have an A. Here is the further analysis of my opponent’s holding.
As: If he had trip As, he just crushed set of 4s or A4 two pairs on flop. It would be impossibly passive for him to just call my raise on flop and check to me on turn with a flush draw on board. Possibility is pretty small.
AQ: It is possible. He flopped big so bet small on flop, trying to build pot. He was afraid of the small raise on flop from a tight player. If I had 4s, he was seriously behind. Thus he just called the raise on flop and checked on turn.
But if I were him, I would lead out half to two-thirds of the pot on turn to find out where I was. After all, there was a possible flush draw on the flop. You did not see the tight player deploy the semi-bluff raise before, but it does not mean he does not know the technique and he does not have the guts to use it. The bottom line, you do not want to give a free card.
If my top two pairs were raised again on turn, I can safely throw it away.
AJs: Then the turn just gave my opponent 2 pairs. Analysis similar to AQ holding.
AK: My opponent has top pair A with K kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for 10.
A10s: My opponent has top pair A with 10 kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for K.
One thing to note here: the J would help at least half of my opponent’s holdings. It did not seem a good card for me.
My options
Check: I did not expect my opponent to fold on flop with my raise, because of my flop analysis. I planned to get a free card. Now you get the free card opportunity. There is a strong argument to take the opportunity.
How about semi-bluff betting on turn?
Suppose I continue to represent set of 4s or A4 two pairs. The pot is $140 + $100 + $100 = $340 now. I have $360 - $20 - $100 = $240 left. The reasonable betting for me would be $100 - $170. Lure my opponent in.
Pushing all-in would be uncool. Nobody would play a set that way at this level (You might want to try this at higher stake table). Your all-in push would really smell like a flush draw.
But with my opponent’s possible holdings, from the top pair + straight draw, two pairs, to remotely possible set. He probably would call. After all, if I had A4, he would have more outs to river me, if not beating me already.
Once he call my bet on turn, he would be pot-committed. I would not be able to bluff him out of the pot on river with the rest of $70 - $140 chips, if I miss the flush.
Thus, the turn card J just took away the semi-bluffing idea, because my opponent’s possible holdings and my chip stack.
Actual Situation
I thought about 15 seconds. Went with original plan to take a "free" card.
The river is a 6. Give me a useless pair of 6.
BB bet out three red chips – in total $15.
My friends, what would you do now? Fold, Call, Raise? Why?
Things were going as planned.
I cut off all the players behind me + SB and got heads-up against the opponent in position. I got the aggressor to slow down and check to me. I also got some new information to digest.
His call meant he did not hold Ks. So he must have an A. Here is the further analysis of my opponent’s holding.
As: If he had trip As, he just crushed set of 4s or A4 two pairs on flop. It would be impossibly passive for him to just call my raise on flop and check to me on turn with a flush draw on board. Possibility is pretty small.
AQ: It is possible. He flopped big so bet small on flop, trying to build pot. He was afraid of the small raise on flop from a tight player. If I had 4s, he was seriously behind. Thus he just called the raise on flop and checked on turn.
But if I were him, I would lead out half to two-thirds of the pot on turn to find out where I was. After all, there was a possible flush draw on the flop. You did not see the tight player deploy the semi-bluff raise before, but it does not mean he does not know the technique and he does not have the guts to use it. The bottom line, you do not want to give a free card.
If my top two pairs were raised again on turn, I can safely throw it away.
AJs: Then the turn just gave my opponent 2 pairs. Analysis similar to AQ holding.
AK: My opponent has top pair A with K kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for 10.
A10s: My opponent has top pair A with 10 kicker and a gut-shot straight draw for K.
One thing to note here: the J would help at least half of my opponent’s holdings. It did not seem a good card for me.
My options
Check: I did not expect my opponent to fold on flop with my raise, because of my flop analysis. I planned to get a free card. Now you get the free card opportunity. There is a strong argument to take the opportunity.
How about semi-bluff betting on turn?
Suppose I continue to represent set of 4s or A4 two pairs. The pot is $140 + $100 + $100 = $340 now. I have $360 - $20 - $100 = $240 left. The reasonable betting for me would be $100 - $170. Lure my opponent in.
Pushing all-in would be uncool. Nobody would play a set that way at this level (You might want to try this at higher stake table). Your all-in push would really smell like a flush draw.
But with my opponent’s possible holdings, from the top pair + straight draw, two pairs, to remotely possible set. He probably would call. After all, if I had A4, he would have more outs to river me, if not beating me already.
Once he call my bet on turn, he would be pot-committed. I would not be able to bluff him out of the pot on river with the rest of $70 - $140 chips, if I miss the flush.
Thus, the turn card J just took away the semi-bluffing idea, because my opponent’s possible holdings and my chip stack.
Actual Situation
I thought about 15 seconds. Went with original plan to take a "free" card.
The river is a 6. Give me a useless pair of 6.
BB bet out three red chips – in total $15.
My friends, what would you do now? Fold, Call, Raise? Why?