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不用大惊小怪。 整个世界的经济从工业体系向信息体系过渡,不破不立,把资源转移到信息和娱乐行业。以后是每周工作三天,4 天周末。 或每周工作5天,每年工作6个月,象俺花奴一样。

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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / 从UCLA听经济学家讨论会回来, 世界末日啊 --- 来个狠的,关于经济的预测和简单分析。数据上是没有错误的,美国的各种债务的确是那么高,还有一大批要花钱的马上就要来临。
    朋友把我抓去听UCLA经济学家讨论会, 有World bank, 德意志银行, IMF一堆人. 听下
    来的结果

    欧洲, 马上就要经济风暴 (epic financial storm >>>> 1990年代亚洲). 下半年东欧
    全面破产, EU小国基本上也要破产. 德国可能还好, 英国基本上破产. 意大利, 西班牙可能退出EURO ZONE
    亚洲, 日本会继续lost decade, 基本上是lost two to three decades at least
    中国, very very serious recession, 但是中国lucky, 这个recession是
    garden variety recession with garden
    variety solution, 不过不可能一年结束. 中国会是这次最轻的, 因为有balanced
    budget, 17% debt ratio, 1.9T存款
    美国. 一个字, 惨
    美国的惨是因为同时有四个不同的crisis, with regular scheduled crisis for the
    next thirty years (social security,
    med care)美国的obligation 是 50 to 60T, 但是美国完全没有钱, 这些是国内
    obligation. 美国的obligation要fund的
    话, 要70%的联邦税, 还不算州的obligation, 基本上是破产了, 唯一的办法就是大幅
    下调living standard, increase
    tax.

    下半年会blood all over the street

    听完后有的被shell shock的感觉.
    • 听这些大忽悠的话,还不如去听唐菲特的演讲,至少损失能轻点。
      • 这些是实实在在的非忽悠话。马上就上演,只是在几十年间逐步上演。因为人在历史中,看不到历史的缓慢演进。
        • 我直觉是这些兔崽子们是在号召人一起做空股市。如果你也是他们圈内人的话,大概还能听懂一起做在哪一门上。可惜你是外行,只是看了些热闹回来汇报。
          • 你倒是很乐观。这些是转贴。没有提到具体行业。你要漠视这些经济现实,不代表这些不是现实。鸵鸟都是这样的。
            • 哪里有这么简单,这些人是不会空谈什么风花雪月的,背后一定有很复杂的经济利益。或者做空欧元,或者按照危机的次序来做空,你听不懂人家的暗语而已。上次戈尔来多伦多,一批人去听,他们根本就不关心环境,是听如何发环境财的。
              • 无论说的人是什么用意,他们也凭空创造不出巨额的美元债务,和停顿的信用市场。你倒是有了解决美元巨额债务的方案?美国正在印刷钞票,印到空前的通货膨胀,美元就和当年的金元卷一样了,或者希特勒之前的德国马克一样。
    • 楞没看懂。
    • 这些危言耸听听多了,连我这样的一贯乐观的人都赶到不妙。。。有机会请三弟给我们讲讲,客官分析一下现实情况,到底经济会不会真的那么惨烈的倒塌???
    • 觉得根本没忽悠,都是基本现实。不知道的都是根本不关心经济的人。老实说,只要自己没被layoff, 跟你关系也不大。美国可以印钱嘛,没必要什么降低生活标准,更没必要加税。加税这回事是绝对不会发生的,除非总统不想干了
    • 从时政跑出来了?经济学家多是骗子马后炮,尤其是那些喜欢开会的。您要有钱可得当心了。
    • 放狗找了半天,没有发现有相关的英文报道,都是中文的相互转载,原文出自大陆媒体。这么重要的会议,这么耸人听闻的结论,而这样的结论又是出自西方经济学界,但英文媒体却没有报道,Unbelievable!。。。
      • 我要找些英语的西方的DoomsDay的言论不是很容易?这方面英语的也很多。主流媒体不报道?我看看过TorontoStar报道安省一些人自己在准备世界末日。
    • 原创?
    • 还有更狠的, 美国都要成第三世界了。 世界的发展往往超出人们的想象。兼听则明,无论信与不信, 都把它放在脑子里, 当你作决策的时候,拿出来想一想。放狗搜一下Gerald Celente,会找到更多他的采访和言论。
      Subject: Scary Thoughts from Gerald Celente
      Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 1:01 AM

      The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

      Gerald Celente (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerald_Celente), the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

      Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

      "We're going to see the end of the retail Christmas....we're going to see a fundamental shift take place....putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree," said Celente, adding that the situation would be "worse than the great depression".

      "America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for," said Celente, noting that people's refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

      Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent.

      The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

      The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest," and that, "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class."

      In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.

      "There will be a revolution in this country," he said. "It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."
      "The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."

      "It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

      "We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people's minds weren't wrecked on all these modern drugs - over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody's comprehension."

      The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente's accuracy as a trend forecaster.

      "When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente."

      - CNN Headline News
      "A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties."

      - The Economist
      "Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right."

      - USA Today
      "There's not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he's talking about."

      - CNBC
      "Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider the Trends Research Institute."

      - The Wall Street Journal
      "Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."

      - The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
      "Mr. Celente tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate clients."

      - The New York Times
      "Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority."

      - 48 Hours, CBS News
      "Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing."

      - The Detroit News
      "Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, 'green marketing,' and the boom in gourmet coffees."

    • 一句话, 问题当然有, 也很严重, 但结论不可信. 因为是静态的看问题, 这就是问题.
    • 不用大惊小怪。 整个世界的经济从工业体系向信息体系过渡,不破不立,把资源转移到信息和娱乐行业。以后是每周工作三天,4 天周末。 或每周工作5天,每年工作6个月,象俺花奴一样。
    • The world is changing everyday. The country that has the ability to dynamically adjust to the changing world will be the winner.
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛In the 80's, everybody believed Japan was on its way to become number 1 in 5 years. Look at what happened, it suffers 0% economic growth since the early 90's, and even contracted 12% last year, unbelieavable. Aging population and failure to adapt to changes played a big role in its failure. Many European nations had the same fate. Today, China has the strength of a large, cheap workforce. But in just 10, 20 years from now, we will see a very different China, the workforce will be aging, produce less and save more, there will not be enough young people to replace them because of the one child policy. Japan's today will be China's future. The undemocratic, close political system will only make the matter worse. Throughout history, the USA has showed enormous abilities to adapt to changes, to overcome difficulties, to quickly right the wrong and move on. This is the result of a democratic, open, free and resilient society. As long as these basic characteristics of the American society do not change, we shall still have confidence in its future.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • "We must become the change we want to see in the world". -Mohandas Gandhi.