本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛as the credit crunch still threatening, market in NA will keep volatile and investors' confidence experiences pressure. I-banking business may have to clean existing mess first, with external collaborations such as interest and liquidity support from central banks. This process could help stabilize the market environment. My 2cents on the JP and BSC acquire is that the major players on the street are rescuing the market. Bear's melt did have significant impact, however, it could be worst if JP & Fed did not work out the plan, just imagine if no one bail Bear, the first hit could be in the $4.5 trillion repo market, i am sure you know what consequence that might bring to the industry. Therefore the bottom line is there are substantial efforts been taken to rescue the market, we just don't know how effective they are and how long it takes before the market gets out of the cold.
While firms are cleaning the house, they also exploring new biz to generate cash flow. Of course this time risk and credit management gain more attention, but risk exists as always since it is the nature of the business. VISA IPO last week is an excellent case showing how desperate investors are in opportunity pursuing. (Based on V's 10-K, its P/E by Thursday almost hyped to 100+, the ratio still won't be even close to MA's 28 level even adding back the $800MM litigation to its EPS, yet ppls just have the confidence in it).
Personally i won't be surprised to see remarkable improvement in NA in 2009, hold all other factors unchanged (e.g. macro factors in other geo, US election, oil and material providers' performance...). Just personal opinion, open to critique.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net