本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Willy Wo-Lap Lam
CNN Senior China Analyst
(CNN) -- The sudden leap forward in ties between the U.S. and Taiwan has caught the administration of President Jiang Zemin off-guard.
Worse, Jiang and colleagues lack effective weapons to beat back this bold challenge to Beijing's reunification policy.
It is quite clear that instead of being just a fluke event, Taiwan Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming's U.S. trip last week symbolized a new -- and much more intimate -- relationship between Washington and Taipei.
Consider these stunning developments. The U.S. Pacific Command has issued an invitation to Taiwan military officers to attend a 12-week course on security matters at the Hawaii-based Asia-Pacific Center for Strategic Studies.
The four People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers who had signed up for the same course are expected to withdraw in protest.
A bipartisan Congressional Taiwan Caucus was earlier this month established in the U.S. legislature to "assist Taiwan in its defense-related affairs."
Taipei sources said Taiwan Foreign Minister Eugene Chien, who said last week that relations with the U.S. were "at their best in 30 years," was himself planning an American tour.
And former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, deemed by Beijing as the "godfather of independence" will likely be visiting the U.S. before the summer.
Words of assurance
These visits testify to a qualitative change if not a paradigm shift in U.S.-Taiwan relations.
The first salvo in this direction was of course fired by President George W. Bush a year ago, when he abandoned the so-called principle of "strategic ambiguity" on whether the U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid should it be attacked by China.
Last April, Bush said unequivocally that Washington would do "whatever it takes" to defend the island.
The train of events unleashed by September 11 has temporarily side-tracked Washington's new deal for Taiwan.
Bush's new Taiwan agenda was resumed a couple of months ago by words of assurance -- whether made publicly or otherwise -- by American officials that U.S.-Taiwan ties would be upgraded on issues ranging from arms sales to visits to America by top Taiwan officials.
It was after receiving U.S. encouragement that the Taiwan Foreign Ministry requested last week that its U.S.-based diplomats be able to conduct business with American officials in the latter's offices.
Until recently, Washington had insisted that State Department or Defense Department officials meet Taiwan counterparts in non-official venues such as restaurants.
Ripple effect
China has called on the U.S. to stand by its commitments over the Taiwan issue
Equally disturbing to Beijing, Washington's new-found coziness with Taiwan has begun to produce a ripple effect in Europe.
Last week, the European Parliament passed a resolution supporting Taiwan's application for observer status at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.
The Taiwan media has reported that a number of private and semi-private German and French weapons manufacturers have quietly begun to test the waters in Taiwan after an absence of several years.
So far, Chinese reactions have not gone beyond high-decibel protests by the Foreign Ministry and threats about the cancellation of a proposed naval visit to a U.S. base in Virginia this summer.
Chinese sources said President Jiang Zemin, Head of the Comunist party's Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA), has ruled out spiking Vice-President Hu Jintao's scheduled trip to Washington in late April or early May.
The PLA will, as with past practice, soon begin their spring exercises along China's southeast coast.
Yet Jiang has at least temporarily vetoed large-scale military exercises on a par with the missile tests of 1995 and 1996, which were in reaction to former president Lee's visit to Cornell University.
Given that China has just joined the WTO, the Jiang leadership is leery of using the trade sanctions card against U.S..
Moreover, if the EU were to follow Washington's lead in warming up to Taiwan, Beijing would find it difficult to use the old tactic of playing the U.S. and European countries off one against the another.
'Great power diplomacy'
Chinese leaders defended PLA's budget boost, saying Chinese soldiers were underpaid
Beijing analysts said Washington and Taipei had indeed picked an opportune moment to challenge Beijing's Taiwan policy.
With the pivotal Communist Party 16th Congress a mere half a year ago, the Chinese leadership is preoccupied with factional intrigue and horse-trading.
Moreover, Jiang, who is retiring from most of his positions in a year, does not want to imperil his own U.S. trip in October.
The 75-year-old cadre has told intimates a globally televised visit to Bush's Texas ranch would be an appropriately high note on which to end his presidency.
After all, Jiang's so-called "great power diplomacy" or "diplomacy of presidential summits" -- the ability of a Chinese head of state to conduct international affairs on the same footing as counterparts from the U.S. or other major countries -- is considered one of the president's major legacies.
So far, Jiang has been able to handle the unsurprisingly strong reactions from hardliners, including PLA officers who have complained about Beijing's "weak and soft" policies on the U.S. and Taiwan.
Chinese military strategists have claimed that Washington's boosted ties with Asian allies such as Taiwan and Japan, coupled with developments including stationing of troops in Central Asia, were integral to Bush's "anti-China containment policy."
'Constructive, cooperative relationship'
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province
Sources close to the PLA said disgruntled officers had asked retired General Zhang Zhen -- who played a key role in the missile tests against Taiwan in 1995 and 1996 -- to admonish Jiang about the need for a tougher line.
Moreover, even though the National People's Congress had just awarded the PLA with a 17.6% budget boost, the generals are already asking for more.
Particularly vocal demands for funds have been made by the top brass at the Navy and the Second Artillery Corp, the PLA's missile unit.
The sources said that for the moment, Jiang has been able to placate the generals by pledging that their financial requests would be sympathetically considered.
However, should the U.S.-Taiwan situation deteriorate from Beijing's perspective, it is likely Jiang -- and his heir-apparent Hu -- may be obliged to rattle the saber.
Analysts say "pro-Taiwan" politicians in the U.S. are hoping that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian might soon be able to visit the U.S. in a similar fashion as Lee's 1995 tour.
The analysts say such a development could torpedo the "constructive, cooperative relationship" that Bush cemented with Jiang in their recent summit -- and send Sino-U.S. relations into a tailspin.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
CNN Senior China Analyst
(CNN) -- The sudden leap forward in ties between the U.S. and Taiwan has caught the administration of President Jiang Zemin off-guard.
Worse, Jiang and colleagues lack effective weapons to beat back this bold challenge to Beijing's reunification policy.
It is quite clear that instead of being just a fluke event, Taiwan Defense Minister Tang Yiau-ming's U.S. trip last week symbolized a new -- and much more intimate -- relationship between Washington and Taipei.
Consider these stunning developments. The U.S. Pacific Command has issued an invitation to Taiwan military officers to attend a 12-week course on security matters at the Hawaii-based Asia-Pacific Center for Strategic Studies.
The four People's Liberation Army (PLA) officers who had signed up for the same course are expected to withdraw in protest.
A bipartisan Congressional Taiwan Caucus was earlier this month established in the U.S. legislature to "assist Taiwan in its defense-related affairs."
Taipei sources said Taiwan Foreign Minister Eugene Chien, who said last week that relations with the U.S. were "at their best in 30 years," was himself planning an American tour.
And former Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui, deemed by Beijing as the "godfather of independence" will likely be visiting the U.S. before the summer.
Words of assurance
These visits testify to a qualitative change if not a paradigm shift in U.S.-Taiwan relations.
The first salvo in this direction was of course fired by President George W. Bush a year ago, when he abandoned the so-called principle of "strategic ambiguity" on whether the U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid should it be attacked by China.
Last April, Bush said unequivocally that Washington would do "whatever it takes" to defend the island.
The train of events unleashed by September 11 has temporarily side-tracked Washington's new deal for Taiwan.
Bush's new Taiwan agenda was resumed a couple of months ago by words of assurance -- whether made publicly or otherwise -- by American officials that U.S.-Taiwan ties would be upgraded on issues ranging from arms sales to visits to America by top Taiwan officials.
It was after receiving U.S. encouragement that the Taiwan Foreign Ministry requested last week that its U.S.-based diplomats be able to conduct business with American officials in the latter's offices.
Until recently, Washington had insisted that State Department or Defense Department officials meet Taiwan counterparts in non-official venues such as restaurants.
Ripple effect
China has called on the U.S. to stand by its commitments over the Taiwan issue
Equally disturbing to Beijing, Washington's new-found coziness with Taiwan has begun to produce a ripple effect in Europe.
Last week, the European Parliament passed a resolution supporting Taiwan's application for observer status at the World Health Assembly in Geneva.
The Taiwan media has reported that a number of private and semi-private German and French weapons manufacturers have quietly begun to test the waters in Taiwan after an absence of several years.
So far, Chinese reactions have not gone beyond high-decibel protests by the Foreign Ministry and threats about the cancellation of a proposed naval visit to a U.S. base in Virginia this summer.
Chinese sources said President Jiang Zemin, Head of the Comunist party's Leading Group on Foreign Affairs (LGFA), has ruled out spiking Vice-President Hu Jintao's scheduled trip to Washington in late April or early May.
The PLA will, as with past practice, soon begin their spring exercises along China's southeast coast.
Yet Jiang has at least temporarily vetoed large-scale military exercises on a par with the missile tests of 1995 and 1996, which were in reaction to former president Lee's visit to Cornell University.
Given that China has just joined the WTO, the Jiang leadership is leery of using the trade sanctions card against U.S..
Moreover, if the EU were to follow Washington's lead in warming up to Taiwan, Beijing would find it difficult to use the old tactic of playing the U.S. and European countries off one against the another.
'Great power diplomacy'
Chinese leaders defended PLA's budget boost, saying Chinese soldiers were underpaid
Beijing analysts said Washington and Taipei had indeed picked an opportune moment to challenge Beijing's Taiwan policy.
With the pivotal Communist Party 16th Congress a mere half a year ago, the Chinese leadership is preoccupied with factional intrigue and horse-trading.
Moreover, Jiang, who is retiring from most of his positions in a year, does not want to imperil his own U.S. trip in October.
The 75-year-old cadre has told intimates a globally televised visit to Bush's Texas ranch would be an appropriately high note on which to end his presidency.
After all, Jiang's so-called "great power diplomacy" or "diplomacy of presidential summits" -- the ability of a Chinese head of state to conduct international affairs on the same footing as counterparts from the U.S. or other major countries -- is considered one of the president's major legacies.
So far, Jiang has been able to handle the unsurprisingly strong reactions from hardliners, including PLA officers who have complained about Beijing's "weak and soft" policies on the U.S. and Taiwan.
Chinese military strategists have claimed that Washington's boosted ties with Asian allies such as Taiwan and Japan, coupled with developments including stationing of troops in Central Asia, were integral to Bush's "anti-China containment policy."
'Constructive, cooperative relationship'
Beijing considers Taiwan a breakaway province
Sources close to the PLA said disgruntled officers had asked retired General Zhang Zhen -- who played a key role in the missile tests against Taiwan in 1995 and 1996 -- to admonish Jiang about the need for a tougher line.
Moreover, even though the National People's Congress had just awarded the PLA with a 17.6% budget boost, the generals are already asking for more.
Particularly vocal demands for funds have been made by the top brass at the Navy and the Second Artillery Corp, the PLA's missile unit.
The sources said that for the moment, Jiang has been able to placate the generals by pledging that their financial requests would be sympathetically considered.
However, should the U.S.-Taiwan situation deteriorate from Beijing's perspective, it is likely Jiang -- and his heir-apparent Hu -- may be obliged to rattle the saber.
Analysts say "pro-Taiwan" politicians in the U.S. are hoping that Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian might soon be able to visit the U.S. in a similar fashion as Lee's 1995 tour.
The analysts say such a development could torpedo the "constructive, cooperative relationship" that Bush cemented with Jiang in their recent summit -- and send Sino-U.S. relations into a tailspin.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net