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主题讨论:次级贷款问题对加拿大经济、股市、房市的影响

最近大家对美国次级贷款问题对於经济和股市的影响非常关心, 所以开个主题,供大家深入讨论。主要问题包括:

1。次级贷款问题将牵扯到加拿大经济的那些领域?对世界经济的牵连影响如何?对美加IT业的反馈影响将如何?
2.对加拿大股市,房市影响将如何?

希望大家的积极参与!但就事论事,请避免人身攻击
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  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / 主题讨论:次级贷款问题对加拿大经济、股市、房市的影响
    最近大家对美国次级贷款问题对於经济和股市的影响非常关心, 所以开个主题,供大家深入讨论。主要问题包括:

    1。次级贷款问题将牵扯到加拿大经济的那些领域?对世界经济的牵连影响如何?对美加IT业的反馈影响将如何?
    2.对加拿大股市,房市影响将如何?

    希望大家的积极参与!但就事论事,请避免人身攻击
    • 从世界各大银行采取的迅速举措看,各个方面都不希望这次次级贷款的风波演变成金融危机
      个人觉得还会有个快速探底起稳的过程,此后重回牛市轨道,真正有效益业绩增长迅速的企业会收到基金的追捧。
    • 转几篇文章 次贷风潮在金融领域有三个方面的直接后果(ZT)
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛一方面,这次西方国家联手注入银行系统的资金达到3260亿美圆,通过银行信用的杠杆作用,这些资金将起到至少一万亿美圆的市场稳定作用.一旦,拯救行动在不久后宣告失败,那基本是1929年以来资本主义世界最广泛最猛烈经济危机爆发的前兆,不是战后任何一次经济危机可以比拟的.但是从目前西方的反应看, 他们处理问题的速度与力度都是惊人人,至少现在有理由相信短期里金融全面崩盘的出现概率很小.但是,其对西方经济带来直接负面影响不可避免,处理不当即使不发生全面危机,次贷风潮使西方经济的繁荣迅速走向衰退不是梦呓.


      另一方面,从本次干预力度来看,美国次贷风潮的实际问题要远远超过目前公开披露的任何程度.如何吸收坏帐与消化社会不良反应的损失,对于即将在明年举行大选的美国来说,对于急需通过振兴经济赶快走出大选失利的日本来说,对于迫切要求加快全面改革的德国与法国来说这些都是不能承受之重.那么谁来承受危机?这是一个问题.

      最后一方面,本轮市场的大规模干预行为,无疑为政府与监管部门更广泛的介入金融与资本市场开了绿灯.其参与的范围不仅将在短期里达到历史上前所未有的程度,更可能将在今后很长一段时间里成为金融领域的一种真正意义上的主导力量.无论这样的努力实际有效,或者是否长期有效,一个我们曾经熟悉的游戏规则从 2007年8月9日开始走向死亡,是卒死还是缓慢走向衰亡只是时间与方式的问题.更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
      • 从社会总财富来看,次贷问题其实并不严重,真正受损的只是那些做金融衍生产品的华尔街吸血鬼们。买单的是那些买次级债券的人。最大的问题就是由于头寸缺乏引发的挤兑,现在美联储已经开始注资,并声明注资没有底线,所有问题必将迎刃而解,不会影响其他经济领域。
        • 注资没有底线? 美联储到底有多少家底?能填得了这个无底洞吗?
          • 有印刷机怕什么?实在不行发行法币
            • they can print 390 million dollars per day
              • 其实现在市场上真正的liquidity和纸币没有直接关系了,Fed如果要造钱只需要一句话
    • #4525@43
    • 加拿大的次贷和多重贷款问题绝对比美国严重。加拿大的房市如果再这样自吹自唱,粉饰太平,真的会一朝崩溃。没有人会自动为以前的泡沫买单,新移民再多也没用,因为产权房是消费品而不是必须品。
      至于股市,可能有影响,但影响不是一比一的。因为加拿大是staple经济,从而决定其大多数企业的全球性的经济特性,那些内需的企业会受打击,如bell, rogers, loblaw等;但那些全球性的或外需的就会较少波动,如石油,矿业,或者是RIM,NT等等。
      • 加拿大应该不会吧。低于20%必须要买保险,前一段时间说赖账的人太少,CHMC暴利。炒楼花那些人应该是自己承担风险,并没有扯到银行上去。
        • 风险总得有人承担,保险公司和它的金融衍生产品也是钱的事,任何一个环节出问题,就会蔓延开来。如果没有美国这档子事,有谁会认真地考虑加拿大的问题?要知道,加拿大有的好事,美国都有,美国有的坏事,加拿大也都有。这世界上和美国最相像的国家就是加拿大了。
          • 加拿大有40年fix mortgage?拜托说话前稍微用一下大脑。
            • 如果是fix的就是银行的风险/暴利,如果是浮动的,那就是买房人的风险了。如果买房人破产数量很大,银行清算的房子也卖不出好价钱,间接的成为银行的风险。
              • 银行本身没有风险,因为他们都有衍生产品作保险。只是这个mortgage行业出现问题,银行受到挤兑,银行不怕亏,就怕挤兑,挤兑是银行业最大的敌人。
                • 银行还是有大小之分的,就像财主有大小之分一样。
                • 北美银行不存在挤兑,在加拿大所有财产都有国家保险公司的保险,超过6万元银行会自动分到自己另外几家影子机构,保证即使银行倒闭,也有国家来赔偿——除非国家也崩溃了
            • 这叫节外生枝。有多少人会真正用40年fixed rate mortgage?这种产品不能使你更容易得到贷款。Subprime和这有关系吗?
          • 不一定。(听说)加拿大银行受到比美国更多的监管,两个国家还真是同中有异的。
            • 不可能的事。多伦多炒楼花和多重借贷的比例很大,不可能有什么更多监管的好事。很多的贷款经纪就靠作假证明发财。一句话,烂透了。
              • 经纪做假证明和美国那种放高利贷在量上面不一样,质也有区别。加拿大按通货膨胀算现在房价和89年最高点房价大体持平,应该还有上升空间。从房产协会的每月统计看,还没有走低的迹象。
                我们可以一起等几个月再回头看,你讲的风险并不存在。不动产市场,美加的曲线不一样。
                • 如果你把89年当作基点折算,谁也说不过你,你安寝去吧。
                  • 比较什么时候房市崩盘,拿上一次崩盘时候的数据来考虑有什么不对吗?
          • 由于美国得同样问题,保险公司的抵押债券买不出去了,那些低首期的保险就没有underwriter了,保险公司只能取消保险或者大大提高保险金。这样本质上就是subprime。
      • 我不想说服谁。市场经济是靠先知先觉着带动的,但任何时候不可能大多数人都是先知先觉的。
      • 不要只喊口号嘛,请先论证一下您的观点. 怎么"绝对比美国严重"? 房市怎样"自吹自唱,粉饰太平"? "没有人会自动为以前的泡沫买单",这是市场调查还是您的幻想? 您认为新移民对房子的需要对楼市没影响?
    • 发言的都有没有根据呀?? 越说越没谱了.
    • 四个字: 庸人自扰. 再四个字: 杞人忧天.
    • lots of comments lack support from economic data..
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛one thing is true that the liquidity crench surprised lot of economist including Feb because the mainstream thinking is: there is over-liquidity issue in American market, not the opposite and for exactly this reason and inflation concern, Feb refused to drop key lending rate even when US growth slowed down dramatically at the beginning of the year.
      Bernake kept aloft to this problem becoz he believed that subprime thing can be contained and not spread to other field of economic sector... it is partly ture though... there is no obvious sign that it has bee spread to other sectors but it is not contained.. it is become a much larger woe to the financial market. Recent both ISM reading show that US is still growing but at a slower speed. there is no instant risk of recession.
      I personally don't believe the same thing will happen to Canadian housing market for several reason.. first, for the house/apartment sold in Canada, new family formation ratio is 70%--around 70% of the unit sold to end user (forming new family), only 30% buyers are second house buyers or investors.. therefore market is less frothy than US's. Although as house price go up sharply, house become less affordable but still reasonably priced considering the debt service ratio. house price might slow down but won't experience severe correct like the one we see in state.

      However, subprime thing will spread to other sectors in the end, people who default on mortgage will default on credit card, car loan or other house appliance purchase loan etc and other industrial will feel the pinch in the end. it will slow US's economy finally and canada, as the largest trading partner of us (80% total trade with US) will feel the pain in the end.

      Canada has its own problem.. it is that its economy is running above potential capacity and generate inflation, and central bank has to decide whether to raise rate to fight the inflation. obviously it will have a hard time making decision-- fight inflation first or inject liquidity.. .???

      without further data to support how big a problem in canada in term of subprime loan.. or liar loan as dubbed in US, I can't give comment on the likelihood of such crisis happening in canada, most major banks in canada had strict guidance as to income confirmation, personally I don't believe same thing will happen in canada but canada will negatively impacted by the crisis from south of border..更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • 2000年开始就说楼市要跌,911再来一次,美国打伊拉克,什么什么一堆的理由,最后房价 还在涨,经济学家要真灵,都成巴菲特了。
      • housing market gone up is because inflation, it should collapse after 911, but Fed put a lot money in it, so tell me if you feel richer than before?
      • what interesting about economist is that they never have one voice... that's the beauty of different schools of economists exist
        you might heard one voice that housing market is collapsing.. after 911, US cut their rate to 1%. .historical low level.. in order to inject liquidity to economy as a whole... housing market price went through the roof and had a lots of bubble in it... and it is time to correct when market affordability does not support such high price level... that been said.. it is still fair to say.. it is necessary to have these rate cut after 911 which is unprecedent terrorist attack..

        US's real GDP did grow a lot since then, employment improved as well with inflation contained.. it had some good time and people in general getting richer... inflation in US in general is not out of whack.. below 3% and in fact, Fed never announce any inflation target like other central banks.
    • 跟股事历次时间一样,一开始也感觉危机重重,现在看来损失并没伤筋动骨。不过米国、加拿大和欧盟反应迅速,决策和投放货币简直是实时的,监管得体
    • 美国的房子跌了,加拿大的房子怎么老涨???? 还有,这个加币怎么涨的像疯子???5年50%.....下去还怎么涨????
      • canada's situation is very different from US
        first, canada's economy is within its honey stage.. best of all time.. GDP grow at 2.5%, 2.8%.. last quarter reached 3.5%... employment at highest level... plus lots of demand from large immigrants (like toronto or alberta).. you will see housing price slow down but no severe correction..

        in term of Canadian dollar.. there are two folds... Canadian dollar is largely energy currency becoz it is net energy exporter.. if oil price rose sharply, so is canadian dollar.. if you compare the graph of oil price and canadian dollar, you will see the corelationship... secondly, historically US gov tend to prefer strong currency to keep inflation low while enjoying healthy economic growth.. but tide shift within gov in recently year... gov turn blind eyes to weaker US$.. due to large trade deficit and budget deficit (Iraq war)... therefore ,what you see is a combination of both, stronger canadian dollar with a US gov who has more tolerance of weaker dollar..
      • just watch out oil price and gold price, then you know the trend of canadian dollors
    • 去家庭理财看我的论述。有数据极其分析。