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New home construction is expected to fall off from
the near-record levels reached in 2004. As was largely
anticipated, housing starts over the first few months
of 2005 point to much weaker home construction this
year. The evidence is corroborated by a sharp drop in
residential building permits in January and a rising
stock of newly built but unoccupied homes. As such,
the question is not whether new home construction
will slow in 2005 but rather by how much. Although
Conference Board estimates suggest that new home
construction is well above underlying demographic
requirements, a number of factors will allow housing
starts to ease, rather than tumble, to more sustainable
levels. Most important are slightly lower mortgage rates
in 2005, which will help keep housing affordability at
very high levels despite increases in housing prices.
Housing starts are forecast to ease from 233,000 units in
2004 to an average of 193,000 in 2006. (See Chart 7.)
Growth in renovation spending will help keep total real
residential investment positive in 2005, although a decline
of 0.8 per cent is expected for 2006.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net