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这些文章翻译一下意思都变了。搞得好像XX国首脑真的每夜在祈祷一样,谁又会幼稚到相信日本首相会为中国的经济繁荣而每夜祈祷? ZT 原文见内

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Let Us Pray
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

Published: May 2, 2004

Here's what I learned in Tokyo: If you're the leader of Japan, America, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines or the European Union and you're not going to bed each night saying the following prayer for China, then you're not paying attention:

"Dear Heavenly Father, please keep the leader of China, President Hu Jintao, healthy and on an even keel. Please see to it that he moves steadily and carefully toward restructuring the Chinese banking system and ridding it of its huge overhang of bad loans and corruption, before there is a real meltdown that would be felt around the world. Give him the wisdom to cool the overheated Chinese economy without creating a recession that would prompt China to stop importing like crazy and start just exporting like crazy. And Father, forgive us for all the bad words we used in recent years to describe China's leaders — terms like `Butchers of Beijing.' We did not mean it. We meant to say `Bankers of Beijing,' because their economy is now fueling growth all over Asia, bolstering Japan and sucking up imports from everywhere. May China's leaders live to 120, and may they enjoy 9 percent G.D.P. growth every year of their lives. Thank you, Father. Amen."

The most striking thing about being in Asia today is hearing how much more important China's growth engine has become for companies all across the region — and well beyond it. When Chinese authorities told banks last week to cut back their wild lending, commodity prices and stock markets tumbled all over the world. News that China is having regular blackouts because it can't buy enough crude oil is helping push up gasoline prices the world over.

While three years ago the Bush team came to office growling about no longer coddling China — the way those "wimpy" Clintonites did — that talk has disappeared from the Bush vocabulary. It's not just business as usual now. It's business only.

To some degree the world is getting hooked on China — its cheap labor, its voracious appetite for commodities and capital (over $50 billion in foreign direct investment last year) and its emerging middle class. The more hooked we become, the less the world can tolerate any sort of prolonged instability there. If the China bubble bursts, it will be the mother of all burst bubbles. Which is why we need to pray that China's leaders will have the skill to cool things down, just enough but not too much, without some wheels falling off.

"A lot of the world's stability or instability is resting on the leadership in Beijing — there is no question about that," argues Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute. But, he insists, "Chinese leaders understand what world they are living in. They have a general equilibrium view of the world — that what they do affects us all and then comes back to affect them."

That seems true. But one of the ways that China has grown so rapidly in the last decade has been by decentralizing authority to regions and letting governors or mayors attract whatever investment they can. It is not clear anymore how much the center can slow things down.

And considering the huge amounts of foreign investment that have flowed into China in such a short time, "it's very hard to think that they could have invested that much money efficiently," remarked Robert Feldman, managing director in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley. "So the senior leadership is scared, because if they have a hard landing from bad loans you have a regime problem. [But] when they tried to slow the economy, they got real push back from the regions, who said, `You in Beijing have all that infrastructure. Why shouldn't we have a new bridge or road?' "

Given how opaque China's decision-making is, it's hard to predict how Chinese leaders will balance their obligation to behave in a way that promotes global equilibrium with their need to create millions of jobs each year in order to stay in power.

One can only say three things: 1. They've done a pretty good job so far. 2. The job gets harder every day. 3. No one will be immune to the fallout. The relationship of the world to China right now reminds me of that old banker's rule: If a client owes you $1,000, that's his problem. If a client owes you $1 million, that's your problem. China's stability is our problem.

Heavenly Father . . .更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Report

Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / "美国、欧盟、日本和亚洲主要国家的领导人临睡前要咏颂希望中国安定的祈祷文。 ...天父上帝啊,赐予中国领导人胡锦涛主席健康和平安...保佑中国领导人都能活到120岁,保佑中国继续保持每年9%的经济增长率。感谢天父上帝,阿门。” :)))
    • 中国泡沫一破, 全世界都会跟着倒楣,大家要有心理准备
      • [如果客户欠你1000美元,那是客户的事;如果客户欠你100万美元,那是你的事。]hahhaah, true!
      • 我现在倒有些乐观起来了,中国越有泡沫危险,西方就越担心,为了避免泡沫化,于是更多的资金注入,西方就被套得越牢,中国经济总量就越大,相对来说也就越不容易泡沫化,这是一个负反馈系统。
        • You are too simple
          • 就象加拿大的王牌股NT, 到十块前一股的时候买进, 结果套牢;跌到8块钱再买再套; 结果到5块钱, 只好割肉出逃。
          • 俺就是一点都不懂经济,所以才在瞎猜吗。 看来应该买点股票玩玩,也许能增加点知识。
            • Some jokes about 经济学家(ZT)
              本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛由于中华民族正处在一个伟大的复兴时期,大家对经济学寄予厚望;在大家的满怀期待之下,经济学迅速成为我国社会科学中的“显学”;与此同时,经济学家也就成为一个十分引人关注的职业。

              应该承认,许多经济学家立足于中国的实际,充分借鉴国际经验,作了大量艰苦而有创造力的探索;但是,同样应当承认的是,经济学离现实的要求还差得很远很远,经济学家做得还很不够。在经济学的研究中,基于社会的热望和“显学”地位的持续,有的经济学家似乎觉得自己无所不能。在这种状况下,不失时机地幽经济学家“一默”,让那些飘飘然的经济学家清醒清醒,既可以促使他们更好地作出成绩,而且这种善意和健康的幽默对于经济学的发展也会形成一种良好的校正性力量。因此,笔者从网络上搜寻了一些国外关于经济学家的幽默。当然,这些幽默毕竟是国外泊来之物,其功用大约也就是聊博一笑,不要太当真,当然这也是幽默的本来功能;倘或是能够引发一些有心人的思考,那就是意外的收获了。


              一 从来不能互相说服的经济学家

              对于经济学家来说,100个人常常是有着100个以上的观点,而且这些观点可以很好地共存。这往往是其它学科难以看到的盛况。于是,有人说:“两个观点截然相反的人能够分享同一届诺贝尔奖,这种情形只有在经济学中才会出现,如缪尔达尔(Myrdahl)和哈耶克(Hayek)”。

              还有人说:“叶利钦有100个保镖,其中有一个想谋杀他,叶利钦不知道他是谁;克林顿有100个经济学家,每次决策前克林顿都听取这些经济学家的意见,但是每次只有一个人讲对了――而且每次都不是同一个经济学家。”看来克林顿的麻烦比叶利钦更大。”

              基于经济学家总是互相攻击的现实,也有人总结了所谓“经济学家第一定律”:“对于每一位经济学家,都有相应的、观点相反的经济学家存在。”这这是一种有意思的共生。

              还有人把经济学家的这种互相不能说服的危害推进了一步,指出:“唯一比经济学家更危险的,是业余经济学家;而唯一比业余经济学家更危险的,是职业经济学家。”(The only thing more dangerous than an economist is an amateur economist, The only thing more dangerous than an amateur economist is a professional economist.)


              二 又聪明又“愚蠢”的经济学家

              经济学家掌握了经世济民的大道理,应该是十分聪明,这也有许多故事来证明;同时,经济学家也常常被嘲笑成“愚蠢”的代表,这也有一些故事来证明。看来,这本身应该成为一个值得立项研究的重大课题。 有人说:“经济学家就是这样一种人,他并不知道他所谈论的,但是,他让你觉得这是你的错误。”从这句话,很难判断人们是觉得经济学家聪明还是愚蠢。

              杜鲁门也曾经被经济学家的含糊其辞折腾过。杜鲁门总统尝恨恨地说:我希望找到一个只有一只手的经济学家。为什么?因为经济学家在提出经济建议时常说:“一方面(On one hand,英文字面意义为“在一只手上”)···另一方面(on the other,英文字面意义为“在另一只手上”.)”(President Truman once said he wants an economic adviser who is one handed. Why? Because normally the economists giving him economic advice state "On one hand and on the other...")

              在对经济学家的幽默中,也有旗帜鲜明地称赞经济学家的智慧的。说是三个经济学家和三个数学家一同外出乘车旅游。去的时候,三个数学家买了三张票,而三个经济学家只买了一张票,数学家心想:“这下经济学家要被罚款了”。但是,当查票员过来时,三个经济学家一起躲进洗手间。看到有人进了洗手间,查票员就紧紧跟到洗手间门口敲敲门,躲在里面的三个经济学家递出一张票,查票员看看就算了。数学家们觉得这是一个节省开支的好办法,于是,在回来时,三个数学家只买了一张票,准备如法炮制。奇怪的是,三个经济学家连一张票都没有买。上车后,数学家一看到查票员就躲到洗手间,当数学家听到敲门声就把买的一张票递出来,但是票并没有还给他们。为什么?因为经济学家敲门后把票拿走,并躲到另外一个洗手间中。 但是,也有不少学者旗帜鲜明地声明关于经济学家“愚蠢”的观点。在著名经济学家克鲁格曼Paul Krugman的一本著作"Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in the Age of Diminished Expectations"(1994)中引述了一个故事:一个印度的经济学家在向他的学生解释他个人领会的转世再生理论:“如果你是一个尽职尽责的、高尚的经济学家,你将转世为一个物理学家;如果你是一个邪恶的、水平低下的经济学家,那你就将转世为一个社会学家”。 也有通过物理学家来拿经济学家开涮的。硕士爱因斯坦碰到三个新西兰人。为了打发时间,他们聊了起来。为了有针对性地聊天,细心的爱因斯坦先了解他们的智商。第一个人回答说智商是190,爱因斯坦很高兴:“我们可以讨论原子物理学和我的一些理论观点”。第二个人回答说是150,爱因斯坦说:“我们可以讨论新西兰为追求世界和平所确立的核不扩散条约”。第三个人回答说智商是50,爱因斯坦稍作踌躇,然后问道:“你预计明年的财政赤字是多少?”据网上介绍,这个笑话刊载于经济学界颇有影响的英国《经济学家》杂志1992年6月13日。经济学界对此没有激烈抗议可见经济学家的心态应该说是比较平稳的。

              加尔布雷斯(John Kenneth Galbraith)似乎对经济预测比较反感。他说:“有两类经济预测专家:一类是并不知道经济状况的;另一类是不知道自己不知道的。”与此有同工之妙的幽默是比特(Laurence J. Peter)所说的:“经济学家是这样一种专家,他明天就会知道,为什么他昨天预言的事情在今天没有发生。”

              经济学家追求的是经世济民,因而政策主张总是希望能够被采纳。但是,Alan S. Blinder 的 “摩非经济政策定律”给出了当头棒喝:“经济学家在他们最为了解、也最易达成一致的领域,对政策的影响最小;而在他们最不了解、分歧最大的领域,对政策的影响最大。”


              三 双脚并不立在地面上的经济学家

              尽管经济学是经世济民之学,但是,为了保证分析的严谨和推力的严密,经济学家要从现实世界中抽象出来,作出许多假定。于是,有不少人认为经济学家是“双脚并不不立在地面上”的脱离实际的人物。这个平价来源于一句戏语:“经济学家和商人有什么区别?经济学家的脚并不放在地上,而商人则把四只脚都放在地上。”至于经济学家所醉心其中的经济学,似乎用处也不大。有语为证:“经济学在什么时候最有用?经济学只是在招考经济学家时才最为有用。”

              经济学家自己也对自己的学生自嘲:“经济学并不能保证你不失业;但是,当你失业时,经济学可以让你明白你为什么失业。”

              也有人认为经济学家讲的都是对的,但是没有什么用处。说是有两个热气球爱好者乘坐气球,结果被大风吹得偏离了方向,于是他就将气球的高度降低,以便找一个人问问现在飘到哪里了。这时候刚刚过来一个人。一个热气球爱好者问道:“请问我现在在哪里?”那人回答:“你现在在热气球下面。”这时,另外一个热气球爱好者说:“这个回答完全准确,但是绝对毫无用处。这个人一定是个经济学家。”

              对于经济学的脱离现实,也有幽默得比较抽象的。Peter Kennedy在其著作 "A Guide to Econometrics" (MIT Press, 1992)中指出:经济学就是这样一种艺术,它从未经证实的假设、到预定的结论间来描画曲线。

              经济学家常常要设立很多的假定。萨缪尔逊于是讲了一个故事:一个物理学家、一个化学家和一个经济学家漂流到孤岛上,十分饥饿。这是海面上漂来一个罐头。物理学家说:“我们可以用岩石砸开罐头”;化学家说:“我们可以生火,然后将罐头加热”;经济学家说:“假设我们有一个开启罐头的起子”。

              经济学上的一些分析方案所现实生火中常常县份十分的可笑。说是三个计量经济学家出去打猎,远处跑过一只鹿。第一个计量经济学家开枪射击,没有打中,只是偏左一米。第二个计量经济学家开枪射击,也没有打中,只是偏右一米。此时,第三个计量经济学家并不射击,而是以胜利者的口气叫道:“我们确定了它的位置,我们能逮住它了。”


              四 简洁的、节约感情的经济学家

              经管经济学的著作汗牛充栋,但是在书摊上依然可以看见“五天成为经济学家”之类的小册子。这实际上从另外一个方面显示了经济学的简洁。当然,经济学在讲求简洁时,自然也就不分析感情等等因素,而是用冷酷的“供给”、“需求”、“成本”、“效益”来剖析人们细目中温情脉脉的结婚生子等活动,如贝克尔的家庭经济分析。于是也有人说:“经济学节约了感情。”

              经济学的简洁的一个重要表现,是供给和需求的广泛而深刻的运用。所以有人说:“会说供给和需求的鹦鹉也是经济学家。”这有另外一个故事为证:一位哈佛大学的学生在网上讲了一个自称是真实的故事:一天,快上课了,这位学生匆匆忙忙地往教学楼赶,偏偏这个时候电梯十分紧张;他发现诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿罗也在一楼等电梯上楼。但是,接连几部电梯都是开往地下室。这位学生叫道:“真是的,为什么每个地下室的人偏偏都要在这个时候上楼凑热闹!”阿罗立即严肃地纠正他:“你把供给和需求弄混淆了”。 经济学的简洁在于问题总是那些问题,但是答案却在一直随着环境的变化而变化。说是一位经济学家回到母校,他在校是对考试很有热情,所以对于当前学生的考试题目十分感兴趣。于是他到教授那里找到了目前正在运用的试卷。令他惊讶的是,这些试卷上的问题与他10年前回答的一样。教授看到他一脸迷惑,不禁哈哈大笑:“经济学就是这样,问题总是一样的――只是答案在不断变化。”

              经济学的冷冰冰自然也不会逃脱人们的幽默。说是一位颇有身份的教授即将结婚,他衣冠楚楚地到珠宝店为他的未婚妻选购结婚戒指。好心的珠宝店老板认真地为他选购,并告诉他,只要他再另外花20美元,就可以将他未婚妻的名字刻在戒指里面。教授连连摇头,“不行,不行,这样的话,会降低戒指转卖时的价值”。珠宝店老板大骇道:“你怎么能够这样说,难道你是一个街头小贩吗?”“不”,这位教授回答,“我是一位经济学家”。


              五 乏味又有趣的经济学家

              经济学家到底是十分有趣,还是相当乏味,也是一个争论很大的问题。

              经济学家有时是十分有趣的。这种有趣有时还表现为一定的杀伤力。话说美苏两国冷战时期,常常互相炫耀实力,表彰破坏对方实力的有功之臣。一次苏联大阅兵,坦克、部队走过,斐济飞过之后,走过来10位身着黑色服装的人。旁观者好奇地问:“他们是刺探美国情报有功的间谍吗?”一位克格勃官员回答说:“他们是经济学家,你们可以想想,我们曾经把这些经济学家送到美国,结果给美国经济造成了大多的混乱。”

              经济学家的有趣表现在他的职业:“经济学家通过解释其它人为什么贫穷而变得富有。”经济学家的有趣也表现在他的坦率:“我宁肯含含糊糊地对,也不愿严谨无误地错”这句由凯恩斯说出的话让大家觉得很有意思。经济学家的有趣也表现在他的遮遮掩掩:“经济分析就象比基尼,其所暴露的都是重要的;但是其所掩盖的,却是致命的。” 经济学家自然也难免给人留下乏味的印象,以致于使大家对于经济学家的不满延伸到经济政策专家身上:“经济政策专家没有律师的严密,不象神学家那样身体力行,但是比经济学家更能卖弄学问。”经济学家的乏味也被好事者狠狠攻击了一下,当然从故事中我们还找不出为什么经济学家乏味的原因。说是一个妇人被确诊患了绝症,医生说她只能活半年时间。这位妇人十分热爱生命,所以十分痛苦,医生于是建议她嫁给一个经济学家,妇人奇怪地问:难道经济学家可以治好我的病吗?医生说:不是的,但是你如果与经济学家结婚,就会觉得半年也是十分漫长的。 于是,就有人说:“应当说,哥伦布是第一个经济学家。当他出发去寻找美洲大陆时,他却不知道自己该往哪里去;当他到达美洲大陆时,他也不知道自己在哪里。但是,他的所有活动都是由政府无偿支持的。”

              看来,国外的经济学家的处境似乎并没有中国的经济学家风光,经济学似乎也没有那么高的地位;但是国外的经济学家取得的成就似乎要比我们大。惟望中国的经济学家慎思之,明辨之。更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
              • 很精彩啊,没人看?
              • 挺好看。
    • :D 加拿大的领导人不象话哈,怎么不祈祷?!
      • 马丁只爱巴结BUSH。
        • 加拿大还没有意识到这个问题, 就像美国买的是股票,加拿大买的是基金,股票跌了, 他以为基金经理很厉害, 还可以涨.
          • 加拿大在很多地方反应太慢,就会守着自己的一亩三分地。
    • 这些文章翻译一下意思都变了。搞得好像XX国首脑真的每夜在祈祷一样,谁又会幼稚到相信日本首相会为中国的经济繁荣而每夜祈祷? ZT 原文见内
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Let Us Pray
      By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

      Published: May 2, 2004

      Here's what I learned in Tokyo: If you're the leader of Japan, America, Australia, Taiwan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, the Philippines or the European Union and you're not going to bed each night saying the following prayer for China, then you're not paying attention:

      "Dear Heavenly Father, please keep the leader of China, President Hu Jintao, healthy and on an even keel. Please see to it that he moves steadily and carefully toward restructuring the Chinese banking system and ridding it of its huge overhang of bad loans and corruption, before there is a real meltdown that would be felt around the world. Give him the wisdom to cool the overheated Chinese economy without creating a recession that would prompt China to stop importing like crazy and start just exporting like crazy. And Father, forgive us for all the bad words we used in recent years to describe China's leaders — terms like `Butchers of Beijing.' We did not mean it. We meant to say `Bankers of Beijing,' because their economy is now fueling growth all over Asia, bolstering Japan and sucking up imports from everywhere. May China's leaders live to 120, and may they enjoy 9 percent G.D.P. growth every year of their lives. Thank you, Father. Amen."

      The most striking thing about being in Asia today is hearing how much more important China's growth engine has become for companies all across the region — and well beyond it. When Chinese authorities told banks last week to cut back their wild lending, commodity prices and stock markets tumbled all over the world. News that China is having regular blackouts because it can't buy enough crude oil is helping push up gasoline prices the world over.

      While three years ago the Bush team came to office growling about no longer coddling China — the way those "wimpy" Clintonites did — that talk has disappeared from the Bush vocabulary. It's not just business as usual now. It's business only.

      To some degree the world is getting hooked on China — its cheap labor, its voracious appetite for commodities and capital (over $50 billion in foreign direct investment last year) and its emerging middle class. The more hooked we become, the less the world can tolerate any sort of prolonged instability there. If the China bubble bursts, it will be the mother of all burst bubbles. Which is why we need to pray that China's leaders will have the skill to cool things down, just enough but not too much, without some wheels falling off.

      "A lot of the world's stability or instability is resting on the leadership in Beijing — there is no question about that," argues Richard Koo, chief economist for Nomura Research Institute. But, he insists, "Chinese leaders understand what world they are living in. They have a general equilibrium view of the world — that what they do affects us all and then comes back to affect them."

      That seems true. But one of the ways that China has grown so rapidly in the last decade has been by decentralizing authority to regions and letting governors or mayors attract whatever investment they can. It is not clear anymore how much the center can slow things down.

      And considering the huge amounts of foreign investment that have flowed into China in such a short time, "it's very hard to think that they could have invested that much money efficiently," remarked Robert Feldman, managing director in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley. "So the senior leadership is scared, because if they have a hard landing from bad loans you have a regime problem. [But] when they tried to slow the economy, they got real push back from the regions, who said, `You in Beijing have all that infrastructure. Why shouldn't we have a new bridge or road?' "

      Given how opaque China's decision-making is, it's hard to predict how Chinese leaders will balance their obligation to behave in a way that promotes global equilibrium with their need to create millions of jobs each year in order to stay in power.

      One can only say three things: 1. They've done a pretty good job so far. 2. The job gets harder every day. 3. No one will be immune to the fallout. The relationship of the world to China right now reminds me of that old banker's rule: If a client owes you $1,000, that's his problem. If a client owes you $1 million, that's your problem. China's stability is our problem.

      Heavenly Father . . .更多精彩文章及讨论,请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net